
Systematic equity allocation across countries for dollar-based investors
This post demonstrates that country allocation with macroeconomic factors can materially enhance the returns on international equity portfolios in dollar terms. We identify a range of economic developments that, according to standard theory and in conjunction with market inattention, should predict the outperformance of countries either through exchange rate appreciation or higher local-currency equity returns. These developments are captured in backtestable economic factor scores, built from point-in-time macro-quantamental indicators. To select and combine these factors into trading signals without hindsight bias, we employ sequential machine learning. Empirical evidence based on 19 international markets shows highly significant predictive power and consistent material value arising from cross-country allocation alone. A simulation of U.S. dollar-based cross-country allocation of real money investment also reveals material long-term outperformance relative to an equally-weighted international portfolio or a U.S. portfolio.