The duration extraction effect

April 13, 2019

Under non-conventional monetary policy central banks influence financial markets through the “portfolio rebalancing channel”. The purchase of assets changes the structure of prices. A particularly powerful portfolio rebalancing effect arises from duration extraction, i.e. the combined size expansion and duration extension of the assets that have been absorbed onto the central bank’s balance sheet. Duration extraction has a significant and persistent impact on the yield curve and the exchange rate. Importantly, the effect arises from hints or announcements of new parameters for the future stock of assets. Given the large size of central bank balance sheets, this explains why changes in expected asset purchases, re-investments or redemption plans have a profound impact on financial markets.

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Tiered reserve systems

April 6, 2019

Negative monetary policy rates can undermine financial transmission, because they encourage cash hoarding and reduce the profitability of traditional banking. This danger increases with depth and duration of negative interest rate policies. Therefore, some countries (Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, and Denmark) have introduced tiered reserve systems, effectively exempting a part of the banking system’s excess reserves from negative rates. Importantly, a tiered reserve system is now also considered by the European Central Bank for the second largest currency area in the world. Since tiered reserve systems are on the verge of “going mainstream” their impact on asset pricing formulas and quantitative trading strategies deserves careful consideration.

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ECB policy framework in six basic points

January 26, 2019

The European Central Bank is one of the most powerful institutions in the world and is running a particularly complex policy framework. For macro trading and financial modelling, the following points are critical: [1] The primary policy objective is medium-term inflation, with a horizon of two years or more and symmetric aversion to deviations from a mean of just below 2%. [2] In practice, policy rate setting has followed a simple dynamic Taylor-type rule. [3] The operational framework is very broad, with a wide range of counterparties and instruments. [4] The ECB has extensive experience with four types of non-conventional policies (long-term lending operations, asset purchases, negative interest rates, and forward guidance) that jointly exercise powerful influence on financial conditions. [5] The effectiveness ECB policy depends critically on coordinated national fiscal and regulatory policies. [6] Special mechanisms have been put in place to contain redenomination risk, i.e. fears that assets might be redenominated into legacy currencies.

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Monetary policy stance in one indicator

November 25, 2017

New research proposes to condense policy rates and balance sheet actions into a single implied short-term interest rate. To this end the term premium component of the yield curve is estimated and its compression translated into an equivalent change in short-term interest rates. This implied short-term rate can be deeply negative and allows calculating long time series of the monetary policy stance including times before and after quantitative easing. It is only suitable for large currency areas, however. Indicators of smaller open economies should include the exchange rate as well, as part of an overall monetary conditions index.

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Critical transitions in financial markets

September 30, 2017

Critical transitions in financial markets are shifts in prices and operational structure to a new equilibrium after reaching a tipping point. “Complexity theory” helps analysing and predicting such transitions in large systems. Quantitative indicators of a market regime change can be a slowdown in corrections to small perturbations, increased autocorrelation of prices, increased variance and skewness of prices, and a “flickering” of markets between different states. A new research paper applies complexity theory to changes in euro area fixed income markets that arose from non-conventional policy. It finds that quantitative indicators heralded critical structural shifts in unsecured money markets and high-grade bond markets.

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Measuring non-conventional monetary policy surprises

March 18, 2017

A new paper proposes a measure for monetary policy surprises that arise from asset purchases and forward guidance. The idea is to estimate the change in the first principal component of government bond yields at different maturities to the extent that it is independent of changes in the policy reference rate and on days of significant policy statements. Such identified non-conventional policy shocks have had a persistent impact on yield curves and exchange rates since 2000. Their monitoring is important for so-called “long-long” risk parity trades.

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ECB asset purchases: the three transmission channels

September 24, 2016

A new paper suggests that ECB asset purchases influence markets and the economy significantly, mainly through three channels. First, through the asset valuation channel they reduce risk premia and provide capital relief to leveraged institutions, particularly banks. Second, through the signalling channel they enhance the credibility of rates staying low for long. Third, through the re-anchoring channel, asset purchases can reassure the private sector that the central bank remains committed to its long-term inflation target.

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The side-effects of non-conventional monetary policy

July 30, 2016

A BIS summary of research gives a nice overview on non-conventional monetary policies and their unintended systemic consequences. Current policies appear to yield diminishing returns in terms of easier financial conditions, while their costs and side effects are increasing. This leaves markets more exposed to future negative shocks. Also, the descent into negative nominal interest rates is itself a drag on profitability and health of the financial system that erodes the effectiveness of non-conventional policies.

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“Helicopter money”: A practical guide for markets

June 11, 2016

If current non-conventional monetary policies fail to contain deflation risk, some form of debt monetization or “helicopter money” will become a policy option. The barriers are high but not insurmountable in the G3. Policies could range from a simple combination of QE and fiscal expansion to outright central bank funding or debt restructuring. If and when monetization of government debt becomes apparent the consequences for financial markets would be profound: the policy response to deflation risk would no longer drive bond yields lower but higher.

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The “de-anchoring” of inflation in the euro area

April 16, 2016

Two recent empirical studies highlight the risk that inflation expectations in the euro area are becoming de-anchored, similar to Japan. De-anchoring means that short-term price shocks can change long-term expectations. Importantly, the papers suggest medium- and short-term measures to track this de-anchoring. De-anchoring increases the risk of actual deflation and may add to the risk premia on equity and credit.

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