Active fund risk premia in emerging markets

June 22, 2019

Security returns, adjusted for market risk, contain risk premia that compensate for the exposure to active fund risk. The active fund risk premium of a security can be modeled as the product of its beta premium sensitivity and price for exposure to active fund risk. Both components change overtime and mutually reinforce each other in episodes of negative fund returns and asset outflows. This explains why securities with high exposure to active fund risk command high expected returns. Active fund risk premia are particularly prevalent in local EM bond markets, where on average 20% of securities are held by foreign institutional investors, many of which are sensitive to drawdowns. Empirical evidence confirms that bonds whose returns positively correlate with active fund returns command substantial premia. The highest premia and expected returns would be offered at times of large capital outflows.

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Hedging FX trades against unwanted risk

September 23, 2017

When FX forward positions express views on country-specific developments one can shape the trade to its rationale by hedging against significant unrelated global influences. Almost all major exchange rates are sensitive to directional global market moves and USD-based exchange rates are typically also exposed to EURUSD changes. A simple empirical analysis for 29 currencies for 1999-2017 suggests that the largest part of these influences has been predictable out-of-sample and hence “hedgeable”. Even volatility-adjusted relative positions across EM or FX carry currencies may sometimes be hedged against market directional influences.

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The rise of EM fiscal risks

April 20, 2016

The latest IMF Fiscal Monitor quantifies the significant deterioration in emerging market government finances. The average deficit-to-GDP ratio in EM is expected to reach 4.7% of GDP this year while the average debt ratio is approaching 48%. The structural deficits of many commodity exporters seem too large to sustain if commodity prices fail to recover. Moreover, dangers from contingent liabilities related to banks and the massive EM corporate debt stock have increased.

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EM exchange rates and self-reinforcing trends

February 6, 2016

Emerging market exchange rates can be catalysts of self-reinforcing trends. Currency appreciation raises both global lenders’ risk limits and EM institutions’ debt servicing capacity. Currency depreciation spurs the reverse dynamics. Their escalatory potential constrains central banks’ tolerance for exchange rate flexibility.

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Non-conventional monetary policy and global finance

January 23, 2016

Empirical evidence shows that non-conventional monetary policy in large advanced economies has shaped financial conditions in the rest of the world. In particular, non-conventional easing has boosted EM bank balance sheets and securities issuance. This goes some way in explaining why the emerging world has become so vulnerable to even just tapering of these policies.

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Tracking trends in EM economies

November 28, 2015

Two recent papers provide useful techniques for “nowcasting” EM economies. The first uses “dynamic factor models” with high frequency indicators to estimate GDP growth in countries with scant and noisy data. The second uses seasonal adjustment with modifications for time-varying holidays that can track underlying trends in China and other countries with lunar year and Islamic holidays.

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How current accounts mislead FX markets

October 31, 2015

A common fallacy is that current account deficits measure dependence on external financing. In reality, external balances and cross border financing are only vaguely related. Vulnerability to “stops” in financial flows does not depend on trade and capital flows (“net concept”) but only on the volume and origin of financing (“gross concept”). Currency crises are not about current accounts that need to adjust, but about funding gaps that need to be closed.

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Leverage in asset management

October 24, 2015

Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge volume of assets, changes in buy-side leverage still have a significant impact on financial conditions, particularly in emerging markets. Also, both theory and empirical evidence suggest that leverage is pro-cyclical.

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How EM bond funds exaggerate market volatility

August 31, 2015

A new BIS paper provides evidence that since 2013 fluctuations in EM fund flows and EM bond prices have reinforced each other. Both redemptions and discretionary sales of fund managers have been pro-cyclical. In liquidity-constrained markets this behavior is prone to transmitting shocks and amplifying crises.

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On the vulnerability of local emerging debt markets

July 11, 2015

A new IMF paper provides evidence that increased foreign participation in local-currency emerging debt markets has made these significantly more vulnerable to foreign interest rate and risk shocks. Concentration of the investor base and poor economic fundamentals appear to amplify such vulnerability.

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Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for over eighteen years. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.

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