Understanding collateral runs

April 14, 2018

In normal financial runs lenders want their money back. In collateral runs borrowers want their collateral back. In today’s highly collateralized financial system the institutions at risk are broker-dealers that lend and borrow cash in secured transactions and that use part of that liquidity to fund their own asset holdings. In collateral runs cash borrowers, such as hedge funds, have an incentive to rush to repay secured loans as soon as the liquidity of a broker-dealer is being questioned. That is because haircuts keep collateral value above loan notional. The demise of Bear Sterns in 2008 illustrates that the peril of collateral runs is real. Still, this source of liquidity risk has not been well explored.

(more…)

The consequences of increased financial collateralization

November 18, 2017

There has been a strong upward trend in collateralization since the great financial crisis. Suitable collateral, such as government bonds, is essential for financial transactions, particularly repurchase agreements and derivative contracts. Increased collateralization poses new risks. Collateral prices and haircuts are pro-cyclical, which means that collateralized transactions flourish when assets values rise and slump when asset values decline. This creates links between leverage, asset prices, hedging costs and liquidity across many markets. Trends are mutually reinforcing and can escalate into fire sales and market paralysis. Central clearing cannot eliminate this escalation risk. The collateral policies of central banks have become more important.

(more…)

Why money markets remain vulnerable

February 20, 2016

New theoretical work shows that money markets remain fragile as long as there is a connection between asset prices, secured funding and unsecured funding. The degree of fragility depends on leverage in the financial system. Central banks can alleviate acute liquidity stress but cannot easily reduce financial system leverage. Hence fragility remains even with ultra-easy monetary conditions.

(more…)

China’s “double impact” on commodity prices

January 30, 2016

China consumes about one third of the world’s commodities. However, its influence on commodity prices goes beyond that. Chinese institutions are also major users of commodities as collateral. Empirical evidence shows a significant link between domestic lending and global commodity prices, particularly through so-called commodity financing deals.

(more…)

Central clearing and systemic risk

January 17, 2016

The expansion of central clearing has created a greater interconnectedness of financial markets and new systemic risks. Large losses of some of clearing members might exhaust central counterparties’ liquid assets and backup lines, triggering unfunded liquidity arrangements and strains on the remaining clearing members. Moreover, collateral requirements of central counterparties could surge in crises.

(more…)

Collateral framework: risks and policies

December 27, 2015

The rising importance of high-quality collateral for financial transactions brings new systemic risks, such as potential collateral shortages and secured funding constraints in crisis times. Vulnerabilities are augmented by collateral optimization, transformation, re-use and re-hypothecation. Collateral policy has become an important part of central banks’ toolkit.

(more…)

Understanding “shadow money”

June 7, 2015

The shadow banking system creates money or money-like claims mainly through repurchase operations: cash managers “park” funds through short-term secured lending, while asset managers borrow against their securities to gain leverage. Large institutions have few alternatives to collateralized lending for cash management. Institutional cash pools and “shadow money” have been expanding rapidly over the past decade.

(more…)

The rise and risks of euro area shadow banking

June 6, 2015

The non-bank financial sector in the euro area has doubled in size over the last 10 years. It has become a concern for three reasons. First, its tight links with regulated banks imply contagion risk. Second, investment funds’ supply of liquidity has become critical for many markets, but is pro-cyclical. And third, rising synthetic leverage aggravates pro-cyclicality of both market prices and liquidity conditions.

(more…)

The “collateral channel” of monetary policy

April 11, 2015

The importance of collateralized transactions for the global financial system has greatly increased since the financial crisis. Moreover, the influence of central banks on supply and pledgeability of collateral has become more pervasive and explicit. Investment managers must calculate with the impact of central bank policy and operating frameworks on financial conditions via this “collateral channel”.

(more…)

Collateral and liquidity

February 4, 2015

A new BIS paper illustrates how debt and collateralization create liquidity. In particular, money markets rely on excessive and obfuscated debt collateral to contain information costs. Opacity and “symmetric ignorance” support their smooth functioning. The flipside is that large negative shocks to collateral values inevitably catch markets “uninformed”, disrupting liquidity services.

(more…)

Tags

Tags
asset management Asset Purchase Program banks bond returns bond yields bubbles capital regulation central counterparty clearing China collateral commodities credit returns default ECB economic data EM equity returns euro area crisis Fed financial crisis FX FX interventions FX returns government debt government deficits herding inflation information insurances Japan leverage liquidity machine learning market turmoil price factors regulation risk management shadow banking statistical methods term structure trend following variance risk premium VIX volatility ZLB
ABOUT US

Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.

FOLLOW US
Linkedin
LEGAL
Research
Quantamental Academy
About Us