How poor liquidity creates rational price distortions

June 4, 2016

When OTC markets become illiquid and dealers fail to buffer flows, institutional investors effectively face each other directly in the market. They can observe each other’s actions and position changes. For example, if large investors make offers to sell under illiquidity, the market expects to become “over-positioned” and will avoid bids at a fair price or even put in offers. In equilibrium investors transact at prices below true value and exacerbate initial negative shocks.

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Understanding bid-offer spreads in OTC markets

May 14, 2016

Bid-offer spreads are traditionally explained by inventory costs, operating expenses and dealers’ risk of transacting with better-informed clients. In OTC (over-the-counter) markets, however, client knowledge and market power of dealers gives rise to price discrimination in favor of clients with high volumes and sophistication. Institutional investment strategies in forwards, swaps and options that are sensitive to transaction cost must consider the institution’s standing with their market makers.

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Collateral framework: risks and policies

December 27, 2015

The rising importance of high-quality collateral for financial transactions brings new systemic risks, such as potential collateral shortages and secured funding constraints in crisis times. Vulnerabilities are augmented by collateral optimization, transformation, re-use and re-hypothecation. Collateral policy has become an important part of central banks’ toolkit.

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The growing concerns over market liquidity

November 7, 2015

Market liquidity accommodates securities transactions in size and at low cost. When it fails the information value of market quotes is compromised, potentially triggering feedback loops, margin calls and fire sales. With shrinking market making capacity at banks, the fragility of liquidity in both developed and emerging markets has probably increased. The rise of larger and more pro-cyclical buy-side institutions seems to enhance this vulnerability.

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Liquidity risk in European bond markets

October 10, 2015

There are signs of liquidity decline and liquidity illusion in euro area government bond markets. Citibank research suggests that liquidity risk is rising due to increased capital requirements for dealers, reduced market maker inventories, enhanced dealer transparency rules, elevated assets under management of bond funds, and the liquidity transformation provided by these funds.

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How EM bond funds exaggerate market volatility

August 31, 2015

A new BIS paper provides evidence that since 2013 fluctuations in EM fund flows and EM bond prices have reinforced each other. Both redemptions and discretionary sales of fund managers have been pro-cyclical. In liquidity-constrained markets this behavior is prone to transmitting shocks and amplifying crises.

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Liquidity events

August 16, 2015

A recent speech by Fed governor Jerome Powell highlights recurrent episodes of short-term distress and vanishing liquidity in large developed markets. Increases in trading speed, market concentration, and regulatory costs of market making all may be contributing to these liquidity events.

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The rise and risks of euro area shadow banking

June 6, 2015

The non-bank financial sector in the euro area has doubled in size over the last 10 years. It has become a concern for three reasons. First, its tight links with regulated banks imply contagion risk. Second, investment funds’ supply of liquidity has become critical for many markets, but is pro-cyclical. And third, rising synthetic leverage aggravates pro-cyclicality of both market prices and liquidity conditions.

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The nature and risks of EM FX carry trades

May 16, 2015

A new BIS paper provides important lessons for EMFX carry trades, using Latin America as a case study. First, FX carry opportunities depend on market structure and regulation. Second, observed carry typically contains a classic interest rate differential and an arbitrage premium that reflects the state of on-shore and off-shore markets. Third, liquidity shortages and FX proxy hedging constitute major setback risks.

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The “collateral channel” of monetary policy

April 11, 2015

The importance of collateralized transactions for the global financial system has greatly increased since the financial crisis. Moreover, the influence of central banks on supply and pledgeability of collateral has become more pervasive and explicit. Investment managers must calculate with the impact of central bank policy and operating frameworks on financial conditions via this “collateral channel”.

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Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.

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