Asset overvaluation and bubbles

March 9, 2013

Ever wondered why an asset or asset class maintains an implausibly high price? A new IMF paper summarizes research on “bubbles”, the phenomenon of a lasting overvaluation. It suggests, for example, that the focus on relative performance among asset managers and the presumption of informed decisions by peers causes herding. Also, limited liability of managers and leveraged institutions encourages upside risk taking. Meanwhile, sell-side research, rating agencies, and accountants often lack the incentives to pre-emptively reveal downside risks. Political and institutional aversion to short selling aggravates overvaluation bias.

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A Fed view on low long-term yields

March 9, 2013

Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke recently explained globally low long-term yields as a combination of anchored inflation expectations, negative real policy rates, and a compressed term premium. The latter is seen as the key development since 2010 resulting from (i) the surge in private demand in the wake of reduced nominal volatility and negative correlation with risk markets and (ii) a surge in public demand resulting from asset purchase programs and FX reserves replenishing. Bernanke emphasizes that the Fed, markets, and forecasters all expect long-term yields to drift higher by 50-75bps per year through 2017. Yet, actually his reasoning would make a sustained directional change in yields contingent on fading crisis and deflation fears.

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Large currency moves and equity performance

March 2, 2013

Citi equity research investigates the relation between currencies and equity markets. It suggests that typically large currency appreciation (depreciation) coincides with underperformance (outperformance) of the equity market in local currency terms. However, the currency moves tend to be larger than the equity moves. This supports the case for hedging local-currency equity exposure against currency strength and USD-based equity exposure against currency weakness. Hedge ratios should be diverse across countries, as correlation with currency weakness is a function of industry structure. Emerging market equities have historically not always correlated negatively with currencies due to the prevalence of crisis events.

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How inventory levels affect commodity futures curves and returns

January 27, 2013

A new Review of Finance article investigates the link between commodity inventories on the one hand and futures returns and curve backwardation on the other. Most prominently, low inventories mean that the convenience yield of physical holdings is high (more need of insurance against a “stock-out”). In this case, producers and inventory owners are willing to pay a surcharge for immediate access to the physical. This will (normally) translate into a higher risk premium, more backwardation, and higher expected excess returns. Moreover, external factors, such as price volatility, can induce producers and physical inventory holders to pay a higher premium for future price certainty that translates into a positive basis and expected return on futures positions. The inventory connection explains why commodity futures returns and futures curve shape are correlated, i.e. backwardation is more often than not a profit opportunity. According to this paper, mainstream theory is backed by empirical evidence for 31 commodities over more than 40 years.

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Currency dynamicis in risk-off episodes

January 14, 2013
A new IMF paper suggests that there is much more to exchange rate dynamics in “risk-off” periods than correlation-driven risk shedding. Indeed, it provides evidence that economic fundamentals, particularly external balances, re-assert themselves precisely during the first twelve weeks after market turmoil has erupted, when the asking price for incremental economic and policy risk is steep.

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Why is volatility so low while uncertainty is still so high?

December 15, 2012

This note from Claudio Irigoyen and others supports the notion that implied volatilities naturally return to long-term trend even if economic uncertainty does not. While implied volatility is very sensitive to deteriorating conditions, actual and implied volatility under poor but stable conditions may be compressed by investor adaptation (defensive repositioning, risk management changes, easing risk aversion, etc.) and policymakers’ direct market intervention (liquidity supply, policy puts, etc.). Technically speaking, the first derivative of economic uncertainty indicators may condition the mean reversion of implied volatility.

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