Sovereign debt sustainability and CDS returns

Selling protection through credit default swaps is akin to writing put options on sovereign default. Together with tenuous market liquidity, this explains the negative skew and heavy fat tails of generic CDS (short protection or long credit) returns. Since default risk depends critically on sovereign debt dynamics, point-in-time metrics of general government debt sustainability for given market conditions are plausible trading indicators for sovereign CDS markets and do justice to the non-linearity of returns. There is strong evidence of a negative relation between increases in predicted debt ratios and concurrent returns. There is also evidence of a negative predictive relation between debt ratio changes and subsequent CDS returns. Trading these seems to produce modest but consistent alpha.

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Fiscal policy criteria for fixed-income allocation

Jupyter Notebook

The fiscal stance of governments can be a powerful force in local fixed-income markets. On its own, an expansionary stance is seen as a headwind for long-duration or government bond positions due to increased debt issuance, greater default or inflation risk, and less need for monetary policy stimulus. Quantamental indicators of general government balances and estimated fiscal stimulus allow backtesting the impact of fiscal stance information. Empirical evidence for 20 countries since the early 2000s shows that returns on interest rate swap receiver positions in fiscally more expansionary countries have significantly underperformed those in fiscally more conservative countries. Indicators of fiscal stance have been timely, theoretically plausible, and profitable criteria for fixed-income allocations across currency areas.

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Public finance risk

Fiscal expansion was the logical response to the 2020 health and economic crisis. Alas, public deficit and debt ratios had already been historically high before. The IMF estimates that this year’s general government deficit in the developed world will reach 11% of GDP, while the government debt stock will exceed 120% of GDP. Fiscal sustainability relies on low or negative real interest rates. Yet, on smaller and lower-grade countries credit spreads have risen and become more volatile. In the large developed economies, central bank purchases help to absorb the glut of debt issuance but cannot prevent balance sheet deterioration. Concerns over sovereign credit risk or – more realistically – debt monetization are rational. Fiscal risk and related government strategies will likely be key drivers of financial market trends for years to come.

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Update on the great public debt issue

The latest IMF fiscal monitor is a stark reminder of the public finance risks in the world. Public debt ratios have remained stuck near record highs of 105% of GDP for the developed world and a 3-decade high of 50% for EM countries. If one includes contingent liabilities public debt would average over 200% of GDP in advanced economies and 112% in emerging economies. Deficits remain sizeable in the developed and emerging world, notwithstanding the mature stage of the business cycle. Overall the financial position of governments today is a lot more precarious than during past recoveries, leaving them ill prepared for future adverse shocks. The U.S. is even easing fiscal policy, expanding its deficit and an already high debt ratio. Also, China’s public debt stock is expected to rise rapidly in future years.

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The systemic risk of highly indebted governments

The public debt ratio of the developed world has remained stuck at a 200-year record high, even with a mature global expansion and negative real interest rates. This poses a systemic threat to the global financial system for at least three reasons. First, governments’ capacity to stabilize financial and economic cycles is more limited than in past decades, which matters greatly in a highly leveraged world that has grown used to public backstops. Second, many countries have taken recourse to mild forms of “financial repression”, which puts pressure on the financial position of savers and related institutions, such as pension funds.  Third, future political changes in the direction of populist fiscal expansion can easily raise the spectres of old-fashioned inflationary monetization or even forms of debt restructuring.

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The global debt overhang

A new IMF report illustrates that a large share of both advanced and emerging economies struggle with private debt overhangs. Excessive debt is a drag on growth and a risk for financial stability. Low nominal growth has hampered deleveraging and aggravates these dangers. Moreover, high public sector debt has reduced governments’ capacity to support private balance sheets and stabilize economic growth in future crises. Therefore, the lingering debt overhang provides a strong incentive for fiscal and monetary policies to work towards higher nominal GDP growth now.

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The world’s negative term premium

The term premium on the “world government bond yield” has turned decisively negative, according to BIS research. Investors have since 2014 accepted a long-term yield below expected short-term rates, rather than charging a premium on duration exposure. The compression and inversion of term premia may have been fueled by a global duration carry trade and seems to be a global phenomenon. It has coincided with increased correlation of long-term yields across developed and emerging markets.

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The rise of EM fiscal risks

The latest IMF Fiscal Monitor quantifies the significant deterioration in emerging market government finances. The average deficit-to-GDP ratio in EM is expected to reach 4.7% of GDP this year while the average debt ratio is approaching 48%. The structural deficits of many commodity exporters seem too large to sustain if commodity prices fail to recover. Moreover, dangers from contingent liabilities related to banks and the massive EM corporate debt stock have increased.

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What we can learn from the “fiscal theory of inflation”

Fiscal policy is as important as monetary policy for inflation dynamics. Government debt has features similar to money and affects private wealth and prices. In particular, if monetary policy protects debt sustainability expansionary fiscal policy is inflationary and restrictive fiscal policy is dis-inflationary or deflationary. Moreover, high interest rates are inflationary and low interest rates are deflationary.

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A mini briefing on global public finance trends

According to IMF estimates the structural government deficit in the developed world has returned to its pre-crisis level. This reflects cumulative fiscal tightening of over 4% of GDP since 2010. Government debt ratios remain elevated, however, at close to 105% of GDP, some 33%-points above pre-crisis levels, leaving public finances more sensitive to real interest rates. Emerging market fiscal indicators continue deteriorating.

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