A new Asian Crisis?

August 20, 2013

A Nomura research report looks at the rising financial risk premium across Asia. It shows that economic fundamentals are not as bad as they were in 1996. However, Asia’s external surplus has been eroded by a torrid financial expansion, which was fueled by very easy monetary policy. In the absence of a correction of this policy stance, there is an increasing danger that capital outflows will trigger a sudden stop to these accommodative financial conditions.

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The dangers of leveraged ETFs

August 13, 2013

Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds have become a significant factor in the U.S. equity market. According to a new Federal Reserve discussion paper their mechanical rebalancing rules can reinforce or even escalate large directional moves in the stock market, both through their own transactions and other market participants’ front running.

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Japan’s new policies and the threat of rising yields

August 10, 2013

A large rise in bond yields would threaten Japan’s sovereign solvency and banking system stability (view post here). New IMF econometric estimates suggest that the Bank of Japan’s quantitative and qualitative easing should lift yields just modestly, as rising inflation expectations would be offset by large public bond purchases. Meanwhile, the deteriorating fiscal trajectory could cause a 400bps rise in JGB (Japanese Government Bond) yields by 2030.

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Understanding ECB forward guidance

August 6, 2013

ECB forward (policy rate) guidance has the declared intent to communicate the Governing Council’s reaction function and its assessment of the economy. It is not an unconditional pre-commitment and does not intend to generate above-target inflation. At the present juncture, forward guidance includes an easing bias.

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Quantifying the impact of monetary policy rate guidance

August 3, 2013

A new DNB paper suggests that announcements by the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee on forward policy rate guidance have been credible and significantly reduced forward interest rates. Thus on average from 2008 to 2012, guidance announcements cut Eurodollar deposit rate 3 years forward by 14bps and 4-5 year forward Treasury yields by 20-21bps, over and above the impact of quantitative easing measures.

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The euro area’s persistent de-leveraging

July 30, 2013

The ongoing economic misery of the euro area periphery reflects the compounded deleveraging of corporates, households, financial institutions, and governments. According to a new IMF paper, the process could still take years to complete. Simultaneous deleveraging across all sectors typically causes negative feedback loops, constraining economic growth and credit conditions.

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Risks related to the Fed’s exit from ultra-easy policy

July 28, 2013

The IMF Article IV consultations for the U.S. suggest that a Federal Reserve exit from unconventional and highly accommodative policy may be challenging. Most importantly, quantitative estimates and past experiences indicate that the term premium on long-dated bond yields can vary greatly and become disruptive for markets and the economy. Meanwhile, the envisaged “passive” rundown of large treasury and MBS holdings would take a long time to unwind the Fed’s bloated and more risky balance sheet. And as long as excess reserves are ample even the Fed’s control over short-term rates will be imperfect.

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Bank of Japan policy and long-term bond yields

July 24, 2013

A speech by Bank of Japan’s Takehiro Sato underscores that stabilizing long-term JGB yields has become a particular focus in the context of “Qualitative and Quantitative Easing”. This reflects the vulnerability of the country’s banks to higher yields (view post here), and the huge debt stock of the government. The Bank reckons that the sheer size and flexibility in its bond purchase program are at present sufficient to contain yield volatility and levels.

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Shadow banking: A review of the basics

July 23, 2013

The New York Fed’s Economic Policy Review provides a basic overview of past and current shadow banking activities in the U.S. and beyond. Securitization and non-bank wholesale funding remain at the heart of the system. The relevance of shadow banking is likely to recover, as capital and liquidity standards in the regulated banking system are tightening.

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Fire sale risk through the U.S. repo market

July 18, 2013

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York continues to highlight the latent risk of fire sales in the tri-party repo market. The danger arises from an incentive to liquidate collateral in case the solvency of a dealer is in doubt. The risk is enhanced by the vulnerability of the main cash lenders intri-party repos, money market mutual funds and security lenders, to liquidity pressure. Policy tools to contain such an event are limited.

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