The view that high public debt is bad for growth, popularized by Reinhart and Rogoff, has failed to find much empirical support in academic research. A paper by Lof and Malinen presents evidence that over the past 55 years lower growth has typically preceded higher debt but higher debt has not usually preceded lower growth.
Uncovered equity parity explains how equity portfolio rebalancing affects exchange rates. Outperformance of foreign stock markets, whether through the exchange rate or stock prices, leaves investors with excess exchange rate exposure. The reduction of this exposure then puts depreciation pressure on the foreign currency. A new Federal Reserve paper presents evidence for the essential parts of that theory.
William Dudley provided an update of the Fed’s strategy for normalizing monetary policy. Under appropriate economic conditions, policy rates could begin rising in 2015, a considerable time after open-ended asset purchases have ceased. Rates increases would be tempered by tightening financial conditions and are seen to converge on a level below 4%. Discretionary balance sheet reduction should follow, not precede, rates normalization. Large excess reserves are not expected to compromise control over short-term interest rates.
Non-conventional monetary policy has inflated central banks’ balance sheets and compressed long-term yields. A new BIS paper makes some points on why reversing this portfolio effect is problematic. The financial system has much greater exposure to government bond yield risk than in the past. Spillover risks for private debt and emerging markets are elevated. And conflicts may arise between central bank and public debt management policies, increasing uncertainty for markets.
An updated paper by Adam, Beutel, and Marcet claims that booms and busts in U.S. stock prices can be explained by investors’ subjective capital gains expectations. Survey measures of these expectations display excessive optimism at market peaks and excessive pessimism at market troughs.
A new paper from the ETH Zurich defines bubbles as episodes of unsustainable and quickening asset price growth with accelerating corrections and rebounds. In order to recognize such patterns it is critical to focus on the broader picture and correct time scale, rather than concurrent detail. Bubbles arise from innovations, valuation uncertainty and various positive feedback mechanisms that make prices spiral away from equilibrium. A critical state is often indicated by asset prices growing faster than exponentially.
Bank of England’s Andrew Haldane has summarized the rise and risks of asset management in a recent speech. As demographics and economic development propel the industry to ever higher assets under management, self-reinforcing correlated dynamics become a greater systemic concern. Market conventions, accounting practices, regulatory changes and structural changes in the industry all contribute to this risk.
Nomura research has summarized evidence of oversupply of residential property in China. Urban floor space per capita is now estimated to be higher than in some developed countries. Land conversion is still rising, while urbanization is slowing. Potential triggers for a sharp correction include interest rate liberalization, capital outflows and property taxes. A plunge in property activity would have serious economic and financial consequences.
This post briefly summarizes why markets are struggling to price macroeconomic trends efficiently. The summary is identical to this blog’s page “Systematic Value III: Information Efficient Tracking of Macro Trends”, which is subject to continuous updates.
The systemic importance of commodity trading firms (CTFs) deserves attention. Key points to understand are [i] CTFs’ core business is logistics, storage and processing, [ii] they are exposed to basis risk rather than outright price risk, [iii] their profitability depends on volumes and derivatives markets liquidity, [iv] they perform little traditional bank-style term transformation, but [v] they are financial intermediaries, by offering funding and structured product services.
Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.
