Economic growth and FX forward returns

April 30, 2022

Economic growth differentials are plausible predictors of foreign exchange return trends because they are related to differences in monetary policy and return on investment. Suitable metrics for testing growth differentials as trading signals must replicate historic information states. Two types of such metrics based on higher-frequency activity data are [i] technical GDP growth trends, based on standard econometrics, and [ii] intuitive GDP growth trends, mimicking intuitive methods of market economists. Both types have predicted FX forward returns of a set of 28 currencies since 2000.
For simple growth differentials, the statistical probability of positive correlation with subsequent returns has been near 100% with a quite stable relationship across time. Excess growth trends, relative to potential growth proxies, would have been more appropriate predictors for non-directional (hedged) FX forward returns. Correlations with hedged returns have generally been lower but accuracy has been more balanced. Finally, balanced growth differentials that emphasize equally the performance of output and external balances are theoretically a sounder predictor. Indeed, these indicators post even higher and more stable correlations with subsequent directional returns than simple growth differentials.

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How to use FX carry in trading strategies

April 16, 2022

FX forward-implied carry is a valid basis for trading strategies because it is related to divergences in monetary and financial conditions. However, nominal carry is a cheap and rough indicator: related PnLs are highly seasonal, sensitive to global equity markets, and prone to large drawdowns. Simple alternative concepts such as real carry, interest rate differentials, and volatility-adjusted carry metrics have specific benefits but broadly fail to mitigate these shortcomings. However, the consideration of a market beta premium, adjustment for inflation expectations, and the consideration of other macro-quantamental factors make huge positive differences. Not only do these modifications greatly enhance the theoretical plausibility of value generation, but they also would have almost doubled the PnL generation over the past 20 years, removed most of its equity market dependence, and greatly reduced seasonality.

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Understanding international capital flows and shocks

October 3, 2020

Macro trading factors for FX must foremostly consider (gross) external investment positions. That is because modern international capital flows are mainly about financing, i.e. exchanges of money and financial assets, rather than saving, real investments and consumption (which are goods market concepts). Trades in financial assets are much larger than physical resource trades. Also, financing flows simultaneously create aggregate purchasing power, bank assets and liabilities. The vulnerability of currencies depends on gross rather than net external debt. Current account balances, which indicate current net payment flows, can be misleading. The nature and gravity of financial inflow shocks, physical saving shocks, credit shocks and – most importantly – ‘sudden stops’ all depend critically on international financing.

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External imbalances and FX returns

June 13, 2020

Hedge ratios of international investment positions have increased over past decades, spurred by regulation and expanding derivative markets. This has given rise to predictable movements in spot and forward exchange rates. First, on balance hedgers are long currencies with positive net international investment positions and short those with negative international investment positions. With intermediaries requiring some profit for balance sheet usage these trades command negative premia and widen cross-currency bases. Second, hedge ratios increase in times of rising FX volatility. An increase in the hedge ratio for a currency puts downward pressure on its market price in proportion to its external imbalance and bodes for higher medium-term returns. Also, the dispersion of cross-currency bases increases in times of turmoil.

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Joint predictability of FX and bond returns

May 23, 2020

When macroeconomic conditions change rational inattention and cognitive frictions plausibly prevent markets from adjusting expectations for futures interest rates immediately and fully. This is an instance of information inefficiency. The resulting forecast errors give rise to joint predictability of currency and bond market returns. In particular, an upside shock to the rates outlook in a country heralds positive (rationally) expected returns on its currency and negative expected returns on its long-term bond. This proposition has been backed by empirical evidence for developed markets over the past 30 years.

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Dealer capital ratios and FX carry returns

November 9, 2019

When financial market intermediaries warehouse net risk positions of other market participants the marginal value of their capital should affect the expected and actual returns of such positions. This is of particular importance in the FX market, where excess positions typically end up on the balance sheets of a small group of international banks. Empirical evidence confirms that currency returns have been related to the dynamics of capital ratios of the largest dealers. Excess returns on FX carry trades can, to some extent, be interpreted as compensation for the balance sheet risk. Currencies that trade at a high forward discount have paid off poorly when intermediary capital ratios decreased.

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FX trading strategies based on output gaps

October 19, 2019

Macroeconomic theory suggests that currencies of countries in a strong cyclical position should appreciate against those in a weak position. One metric for cyclical strength is the output gap, i.e. the production level relative to output at a sustainable operating rate. In the past, even a simple proxy of this gap, based on the manufacturing sector, seems to have provided an information advantage in FX markets. Empirical analysis suggests that [1] following the output gap in simple strategies would have turned a trading profit in the long-term, and [2] the return profile would have been quite different from classical FX trading factors.

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Treasury basis and dollar overshooting

September 28, 2019

Safe dollar assets, such as Treasury securities, carry significant convenience yields. Their suitability for liquidity management and collateralization means that they provide value over and above financial return. The dollar exchange rate clears the market for safe dollar-denominated assets. Hence, when the convenience value of such assets turns positive the dollar appreciates above its long-term equilibrium, similar to classical exchange rate overshooting. Changes in convenience yields are common responses to financial crises, monetary policy actions, and regulatory changes. A proxy for such fluctuations is the Treasury basis, the difference between an actual Treasury yield and the yield on a synthetic counterpart based on foreign-currency yields and FX hedges. There is empirical support for the link between the Treasury basis on the dollar exchange rate.

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Bad and good beta in FX strategies

June 29, 2019

Bad beta means market exposure that is expensive to hedge. Good beta is market exposure that is cheap to hedge. Distinguishing between these is crucial for FX trading strategies. The market sensitivity of FX positions can be decomposed into a risk premium beta (‘bad beta’) and a real rate beta (‘good beta’). FX positions with risk premium betas are associated with a positive price of risk that increases in crisis periods. FX positions with real rate beta are hedges, whose value increases in crisis times. Many conventional currency trading strategies carry either excessive ‘bad beta’ or too little ‘good beta’ and, thus, fail to produce true investor value.

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How lazy trading explains FX market puzzles

September 29, 2018

Not all market participants respond to changing conditions instantaneously, not even in the FX market. Private investors in particular can take a long while to adapt to changes in global interest rate conditions and even institutional investors may be constrained by rules and lengthy process. A theoretical paper shows that delayed trading goes a long way in explaining many empirical puzzles in foreign exchange markets, i.e. deviations from the rational market equilibrium, such as the delayed overshooting puzzle or the forward discount puzzle. Understanding these delays and their effects offers profit opportunities for flexible information-efficient traders.

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Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.

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