Updated summary: U.S. non-conventional monetary policy

July 26, 2014

The arrival of short-term interest rates at the zero bound has changed U.S. monetary policy irrevocably. The Fed’s asset purchases have exceeded a quarter of concurrent GDP over the course of 6 years, compressing term and credit premiums by unprecedented margins, with no reversal in sight. Forward guidance has reduced market uncertainty and raised the credibility of a persistently expansionary stance. Excess stimulus and economic conditionality have become prevalent. The flipside is increased dependency of the financial system on the continuation of such accommodative conditions.

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The Federal Reserve’s reliance on macroprudential policy

July 5, 2014

In a recent speech Federal Reserve Chair Yellen has emphasized the economic cost of making financial risk a key consideration of monetary policy. While accommodative and non-conventional monetary policy may boost risk taking, enhanced regulation should secure financial system resilience and contain excesses. Only when macroprudential policy cannot achieve that goal should monetary policy step in. That time would not be now.

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Understanding the ECB’s latest tool: TLTROs

June 7, 2014

On 5 June 2014 the European Central Bank announced Targeted Long-Term Repo Operations (TLTROs]. Their main purpose is to stimulate bank lending to non-financial corporations. The operations would offer conditional cheap funding to banks in large size and for maturities of up to four years. Private loan conditions should ease in response, particularly in the euro area periphery, but the impact on area-wide credit is uncertain. Also, TLTROs might effectively be used for government bond carry trades.

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The Federal Reserve’s strategy after tapering

May 25, 2014

William Dudley provided an update of the Fed’s strategy for normalizing monetary policy. Under appropriate economic conditions, policy rates could begin rising in 2015, a considerable time after open-ended asset purchases have ceased. Rates increases would be tempered by tightening financial conditions and are seen to converge on a level below 4%. Discretionary balance sheet reduction should follow, not precede, rates normalization. Large excess reserves are not expected to compromise control over short-term interest rates.

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Why bond yield compression cannot easily be reversed

May 24, 2014

Non-conventional monetary policy has inflated central banks’ balance sheets and compressed long-term yields. A new BIS paper makes some points on why reversing this portfolio effect is problematic. The financial system has much greater exposure to government bond yield risk than in the past. Spillover risks for private debt and emerging markets are elevated. And conflicts may arise between central bank and public debt management policies, increasing uncertainty for markets.

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A theory of herding and instability in bond markets

April 26, 2014

A theoretical Bank of Japan paper suggests that instability and herding in bond markets arises from low overall confidence of investors, great importance of public information (such as central bank announcements), and high value of privileged information. This analysis goes some way in explaining drastic bond market moves in the age of quantitative easing, such as the 2013 JGB market sell-off.

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An ECB review of forward guidance

April 21, 2014

The ECB has reviewed its own forward guidance in a global context. Forward guidance uses communication [i] to add monetary accommodation at the zero bound for policy rates and [ii] to contain interest rate volatility. The ECB sees its own version as ‘form of qualitative guidance conditional on a narrative’. It is a commitment to keep policy rates very low over a flexible horizon, based on a wide array of indicators supporting a subdued inflation outlook over the medium term. This is different from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of England, which use more quantitative outcome-based forward guidance.

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The ECB and the option of large-scale asset purchases

March 15, 2014

Large-scale asset purchases have become a plausible policy option for the European Central Bank. A BNP research report suggests that an initial meaningful program could require purchases worth 3-5% of euro area GDP. A program of that size would have to focus on the sovereign bond market, with the acquisition of private-sector assets possibly featuring as a complement.

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Time-varying macroprudential policy

March 2, 2014

Persistent highly accommodative monetary policy in the U.S. raises fears of building systemic vulnerabilities. Federal Reserve board member Tarullo has discussed the use of time-varying macroprudential policy as a means to contain these risks and to allow monetary policy to keep rates low for longer. This policy has many limitations, however.

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How Fed asset purchases reduce yield term premia

February 15, 2014

An updated Federal Reserve paper suggests that there has long been a link between the net supply of government securities and term premia on Treasury yields. A 1%-point reduction in the ratio of Treasuries or MBS (10-year equivalent) to GDP supposedly reduced the 10-year term premium by 10 basis points. A one-year shortening of the average effective duration would lower the ten-year Treasury yield by about 7 basis points. Based on these estimates, the 2008-2011 large scale asset purchase and maturity extension programs of the Federal Reserve could have reduced the 10-year term premium by a total of 150 basis points.

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