Jobs growth as trading signal

October 14, 2022

Employment growth is an important and underestimated macro factor of financial market trends. Since the expansion of jobs relative to the workforce is indicative of changes in slack or tightness in an economy it serves as a predictor of monetary policy and cost pressure. High employment growth is therefore a natural headwind for equity markets. Similarly, the expansion of jobs in one country relative to another is indicative of relative monetary tightening and economic performance. High relative employment growth is therefore a tailwind for the local currency. These propositions are strongly supported by empirical evidence. Employment growth-based trading signals would have added significant value to directional equity and FX trading strategies since 2000.

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Intervention liquidity

September 17, 2022

Unsterilized central bank interventions in foreign exchange and securities markets increase base money liquidity independently from demand. Thus, they principally affect the money price of all assets. Since intervention policies are often persistent, reported trends are valid predictors of future effects. If markets are not fully macro information efficient, sustained relative intervention liquidity trends, distinguishing more supportive from less supportive central banks, are plausible predictors of the future relative performance of assets across different currency areas. Indeed, empirical evidence suggests that past trends of estimated intervention liquidity help predict future relative return performance of equity index futures, long-long equity-duration positions, and FX positions across countries.

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Inflation expectations and interest rate swap returns

August 20, 2022

Inflation expectations wield great influence over fixed income returns. They determine the nominal yield required for a given equilibrium real interest rate, they influence inflation risk premia, and they shape the central bank’s course of action. There is no uniform inflation expectation metric than can be tracked in real-time. However, there are useful and complementary proxies, such as market-based breakeven inflation and economic data-based estimates. For trading strategies, these two can be combined. The advantage of breakeven rates is the real-time tracking of a broad range of influences. The advantages of economic data-based estimates are clarity, transparency, and precision of measurement. Changes in both inflation metrics help predict interest rate swap returns, but their combination is a better predictor than the individual series, emphasizing the complementarity of market and economic data.

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Trend following: combining market and macro information

July 9, 2022

Classic trend following is based on market prices or returns. Market trends are relatively cheap to produce, popular, and plausibly generate value in the presence of behavioral biases and rational herding. Macro trends track relevant states of the economy based on fundamental data. They are more expensive to produce from scratch and generate value due to rational information inattentiveness. While market trends are timelier, macro trends are more specific in information content. Due to this precision, they serve better as building blocks of trading signals without statistical optimization and are easier to predict based on real-time information. Reason and evidence suggest that macro and market trends are complementary. Two combination methods are [1] market information enhancement of macro trends and [2] market influence adjustment of macro trends.

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The power of macro trends in rates markets

June 25, 2022

Broad macroeconomic trends, such as inflation, economic growth, and credit creation are critical factors of shifts in monetary policy. Above-target trends support monetary tightening. Below-target dynamics give grounds for monetary easing. Yet, markets may not fully anticipate policy shifts that follow macro trends, for lack of attention or conviction. In this case, macro trends should predict returns in rates markets. In the past, even a very simple point-in-time macro pressure indicator, an average of excess inflation, economic growth, and private credit trends, has been significantly correlated with subsequent rates receiver returns, both in large and small currency areas. Looking at the gap between real rates and macro trend pressure delivers even higher forward correlation and extraordinary directional accuracy with respect to fixed income returns.

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Inflation as equity trading signal

May 14, 2022

Academic research suggests that high and rising consumer price inflation puts upward pressure on real discount rates and is a headwind for equity market performance. A fresh analysis of 17 international markets since 2000 confirms an ongoing pervasive negative relation between published CPI dynamics and subsequent equity returns. Global equity index portfolios that have respected the inflation dynamics of major currency areas significantly outperformed equally weighted portfolios. Even the simplest metrics have served well as warning signals at the outset of large market drawdowns and as heads-ups for opportunities before recoveries. The evident predictive power of inflation for country equity indices has broad implications for the use of real-time CPI metrics in equity portfolio management.

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Ten things investors should know about nowcasting

September 4, 2021

Nowcasting in financial markets is mainly about forecasting forthcoming data reports, particularly GDP releases. However, nowcasting models are more versatile and can be used for a range of market-relevant information, including inflation, sentiment, weather, and harvest conditions. Nowcasting is about information efficiency and is particularly suitable for dealing with big messy data. The underlying models typically condense large datasets into a few underlying factors. They also tackle mixed frequencies of time series and missing data. The most popular model class for nowcasting is factor models: there are different categories of these that produce different results. One size does not fit all purposes. Also, factor models have competitors in the nowcasting space, such as Bayesian vector autoregression, MIDAS models and bridge regressions. The reason why investors should understand their nowcasting models is that they can do a lot more than just nowcasting: most models allow tracking latent trends, spotting significant changes in market conditions, and quantifying the relevance of different data releases.

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Markets’ neglect of macro news

June 12, 2021

Empirical evidence suggests that investors pay less attention to macroeconomic news when market sentiment is positive. Market responses to economic data surprises have historically been muted in high sentiment periods. Behavioral research supports the idea that investors prefer heuristic decision-making and neglect fundamental information in bullish markets, but pay more attention in turbulent times. This allows prices to diverge temporarily from fundamentals and undermines the conventional risk-return trade-off when sentiment is high. Low-risk portfolios tend to outperform subsequently. The sentiment bias also means that fundamental predictors of market prices work better in low-sentiment periods than in high-sentiment periods.

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Macro information waste and the quantamental solution

May 1, 2021

Financial markets are not macro information efficient. This means that investment decisions miss out on ample relevant macroeconomic data and facts. Information goes to waste due to research costs, trading restrictions, and external effects. Evidence of macro information inefficiency includes sluggishness of position changes, the popularity of simple investment rules, and the prevalence of herding.  A simple and practical enhancement of macro information efficiency is the construction of quantamental indicators. A quantamental indicator is a time series that represents the state of an investment-relevant fundamental feature in real-time. The term ‘fundamental’ means that these data inform directly on economic activity, unlike market prices, which inform only indirectly. The key benefits of quantamental indicators are that [1] they fit machine learning pipelines and algorithmic trading tools, thus making a broad set of macro information tradable, [2] they support the consistent use of macro information, [3] they can be applied across traders (or programs), strategy types and asset classes and are, thus, cost-efficient.

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Classifying market states

January 9, 2021

Typically, we cannot predict a meaningful portion of daily or higher-frequency market returns. A more realistic approach is classifying the state of the market for a particular day or hour. A powerful tool for this purpose is artificial neural networks. This is a popular machine learning method that consists of layers of data-processing units, connections between them and the application of weights and biases that are estimated based on training data. Classification with neural networks is suitable for complex structures and large numbers of data points. A simple idea for a neural network approach to financial markets is to use combinations of price trends as features and deploy them to classify the market into simple buy, sell or neutral labels and to estimate the probability of each class at each point in time. This approach can, in principle, be extended to include trading volumes, economic data or sentiment indicators.

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