Seasonal effects in commodity futures curves

July 7, 2018

Seasonal fluctuations are evident for many commodity prices. However, their exact size can be quite uncertain. Hence, seasons affect commodity futures curves in two ways. First, they bias the expected futures price of a specific expiry month relative that of other months. Second, their uncertainty is an independent source of risk that affects the overall risk premia priced into the curve. Integrating seasonal factor uncertainty into an affine (linear) term structure model of commodity futures allows more realistic and granular estimates of various risk premia or ‘cost-of-carry factors’. This can serve as basis for investors to decide whether to receive or pay the risk premia implied in the future curve.

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Term premia and macro factors

June 30, 2018

The fixed income term premium is the difference between the yield of a longer-maturity bond and the average expected risk-free short-term rate for that maturity. Abstractly, it is a price for commitment. The term premium is not directly observable but needs to be estimated based on the assumptions of a term structure model that separates expected short-term rates and risk premia. Model assumptions become a lot more realistic if one includes macroeconomic variables. In particular, long-term inflation expectations plausibly shape the long-term trend in yield levels. Also cyclical fluctuations in inflation and unemployment explain slope and curvature to some extent. A recent IMF paper proposes a methodology for integrating macroeconomic variables in a conventional affine term structure model.

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The predictability of relative asset returns

November 4, 2017

Empirical research suggests that it is easier to predict relative returns within an asset class than to predict absolute returns. Also, out-of-sample value generation with standard factors has been more robust for relative positions than for outright directional positions. This has been shown for bond, equity and currency markets. Importantly, directional and relative predictability have been complementary sources of investment returns, suggesting that using both will produce best performance.

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Critical transitions in financial markets

September 30, 2017

Critical transitions in financial markets are shifts in prices and operational structure to a new equilibrium after reaching a tipping point. “Complexity theory” helps analysing and predicting such transitions in large systems. Quantitative indicators of a market regime change can be a slowdown in corrections to small perturbations, increased autocorrelation of prices, increased variance and skewness of prices, and a “flickering” of markets between different states. A new research paper applies complexity theory to changes in euro area fixed income markets that arose from non-conventional policy. It finds that quantitative indicators heralded critical structural shifts in unsecured money markets and high-grade bond markets.

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FX forward returns: basic empirical lessons

September 9, 2017

FX forward returns for 29 floating and convertible currencies since 1999 provide important empirical lessons. First, the long-term performance of FX returns has been dependent on economic structure and clearly correlated with forward-implied carry. The carry-return link has weakened considerably in the 2010s. Second, monthly returns for all currencies showed large and frequent outliers beyond the borders of a normal random distribution. Simple volatility targeting would not have mitigated this. Third, despite large fundamental differences, all carry and EM currencies have been positively correlated among themselves and with global risk benchmarks. Fourth, relative standard deviations across currencies have been predictable and partly structural. Hence, they have been important for scaling FX trades across small currencies.

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Why financial markets misprice fundamental value

June 24, 2017

Experimental research has produced robust evidence for mispricing of assets relative to their fundamental values even with active trading and sufficient information. Academic studies support a wide range of causes for such mispricing, including asset supply, peer performance pressure, overconfidence in private information, speculative overpricing, risk aversion, confusion about macroeconomic signals and – more generally – inexperience and cognitive limitations of market participants.

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Understanding negative inflation risk premia

May 13, 2017

Inflation risk premia in the U.S. and the euro area have disappeared or even turned negative since the great financial crisis, according to various studies. There is also evidence that this is not because inflation uncertainty has declined but because the balance of risk has shifted from high inflation problems to deflationary recessions. Put simply, markets pay a premium for bonds and interest rate swap receivers as hedge against deflation risk rather than demanding a discount for exposure to high inflation risk. This can hold for as long as the expected correlation between economic-financial performance and inflation remains broadly positive.

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Debt-weighted exchange rates

January 28, 2017

Trade-weighted exchange rates help assessing the impact of past currency depreciation on economic growth through the external trade channel. Debt-weighted exchange rates help assessing the impact of past currency depreciation on economic growth through the financial channel. Since these effects are usually opposite looking at both simultaneously is crucial for using exchange rate changes as a predictor of economic and local market performance. For example, as a consequence of the financial channel many EM economies fail to benefit from currency depreciation in the way that small developed economies do.

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Inflation: risk without premium

December 31, 2016

Historically, securities that lose value as inflation increases have paid a sizable risk premium. However, there is evidence that inflation risk premia have vanished or become negative in recent years. Macroeconomic theory suggests that this is related to monetary policy constraints at the zero lower bound: demand shocks are harder to contain and cause positive correlation between inflation and growth. Assets whose returns go down with higher inflation become valuable proxy-hedges. As a consequence, inflation breakevens underestimate inflation. Bond yields would rise disproportionately once policy rates move away from the zero lower bound.

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FX strategies based on real exchange rates

July 9, 2016

New empirical research provides guidance as to how to use real exchange rates for currency strategies. First, real exchange rates can serve as a basis for value-based strategies, but only if they are adjusted for key secular structural factors, such as productivity growth and product quality. Second, real exchange rates in conjunction with macroeconomic indicators can serve as indicators for the risk premia paid on currency positions.

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Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.

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