In an easily readable working paper Stephen Cecchetti and colleagues explain the connection between euro area break-up concerns, Target2 balances, and financial conditions. This research would support the idea that commitment to 100% euro zone stability, via OMT and other measures, is the most effective form of monetary easing in the euro area.
A new IMF paper investigates the role of shadow banks in securitization and collateral intermediation. One important forward-looking concern is the potential vulnerability of collateral chains, i.e. the use of a single security for multiple secured loan transactions.
Shadow banking encompasses credit intermediation outside the regulated banking system, mostly through investment funds, money market funds, structured finance vehicles, broker-dealers, and finance companies. In parallel to the classical deposit-based funding of bank intermediation, the shadow banking system establishes secured transactions-based wholesale funding of non-bank intermediation. Thereby, the role of asset managers and off-balance vehicles of banks in intermediation has greatly increased, as has the importance of asset managers as source for “collateral mining. Regulators fear that shadow banking has been conducive to excessive leverage in the economy and contributed to systemic pressure through sudden stops and asset fire sales.
Since 2008, Bank delevering has been on of the key drivers of the euro areas poor economic performance and its vulnerability to recurrent financial crises. Barclays Cross Asset Research nicely summarized and discussed its main drivers, whose impact is widely seen as most intense in 2012 and maybe 2013. ECB and IMF research suggests that the deleveraging is ongoing and could eventually reach an equivalent of 10-30% of euro area GDP.
In its October 2012 World Economic Outlook the IMF presented a 135-year study on public debt reduction strategies. It points out that debt stocks of over 100% of GDP have not been uncommon and do not normally lead to restructuring. Indeed, in the developed world out of 26 episodes only 3 ended in default (Germany and Greece). Successful debt-reduction strategies typically use growth-enhancing and easy monetary policies.
A very interesting Banca d’Italia study shows how euro area break-up expectations are becoming self-reinforcing, i.e. precipitating a divergence of sovereign yields and financial conditions beyond what is consistent with sovereign credit fundamentals.
Chinese wealth management Products (WMPs) are a form of asset backed shadow banking deposit, paying above the rates of regulated banks. The WMPs have been soaring to become the second biggest segment of the financial system. The incur large maturity mismatches and hence are subject to serious liquidity risks.
A subtle type of sovereign debt restructuring is “financial repression.” Financial repression denotes a compound of measures to channel cheap funding to governments, accompanied by a steady dose of inflation. It was practised in the developed world during Bretton Woods era.
The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and its permanent replacement, the European Stabilization Mechanism (ESM) haven proved less effective than the ECB in quelling crisis dynamics. However, the funds are large in size and will play major role in the euro area’s institutional response to crisis pressue.
Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.
