Modern financial system leverage

March 24, 2018

Leverage in modern financial systems arises from bank balance sheets and off-balance sheet transactions that involve banks and other financial institution. Non-bank funding of banks and credit is large, rising, and not fully captured in official statistics. Collateralized transactions and wealth management products are important underappreciated parts of system leverage. The classic narrow focus on bank credit-to-GDP ratios does not only underestimate leverage in size, but also overestimates the stability of sources of funding.

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Interest rate swap returns: empirical lessons

March 17, 2018

Interest rate swaps trade duration risk across developed and emerging markets. Since 2000 fixed rate receivers have posted positive returns in 26 of 27 markets. Returns have been positively correlated across virtually all countries, even though low yield swaps correlated negatively with global equities and high-yield swaps positively. IRS returns have posted fat tails in all markets, i.e. a greater proclivity to outliers than would be expected from a normal distribution. Active volatility management failed to contain extreme returns. Relative IRS positions across countries can be calibrated based on estimated relative standard deviations and allow setting up more country-specific trades. However, such relative IRS positions have even fatter tails and carry more directional risk. Regression-based hedging goes a long way in reducing directionality, even if risk correlations are circumstantial rather than structural.

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Identifying asset price bubbles

March 10, 2018

A new paper proposes a practical method for identifying asset price bubbles. First, one estimates deviations of prices from fundamentals based on three different approaches: a structural model, an econometric data-rich regression, and a purely statistical trend filter. Then one computes the first principal component of the three deviation series as an estimate for the common component behind them. As a general approach the method holds promise for detecting price distortions in financial markets and setback risk for ongoing trends.

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Directional predictability of daily equity returns

March 3, 2018

A new empirical paper provides evidence that the direction of daily equity returns in the Dow Jones has been predictable over the past 15 years, based on conventional short-term factors and out-of-sample selection and forecasting methods. Hit ratios have been 51-52%. The predictability has been statistically significant and consistent over time. Trading returns based on forecasting have been economically meaningful. Simple forecasting methods have outperformed more complex machine learning.

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The shadow of China’s banks

February 24, 2018

Unlike in the U.S., shadow banking in China is dominated by commercial banks, not securities markets. Regulated banks operate most shadow banking activity, take direct risks, provide implicit guarantees and use non-bank entities to shift assets off their balance sheets. That is why China’s shadow banking is called ‘the shadow of banks’ and why it is such a central factor of systemic risk in this highly leveraged economy. China’s shadow banking has important economic functions for individual savers and smaller enterprises. Outstanding ‘shadow savings’ are estimated at roughly 70% of GDP.

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The danger of volatility feedback loops

February 17, 2018

There is evidence that the financial system has adapted to low fixed income yields through an expansion of explicit and implicit short volatility strategies. These strategies earn steady premia but bear large volatility, “gamma” and correlation risks and include popular devices such as leveraged risk parity and share buybacks. The total size of explicit and implicit short-volatility strategies may have reached USD2000 billion and probably created two dangerous feedback loops. The first is a positive reinforcement between interest rates and volatility that will overshadow central banks’ attempts to normalize policy rates. The second is a positive reinforcement between measured volatility and the effective scale of short-volatility positions that has increased the risk of escalatory market volatility spirals.

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The systemic risk of highly indebted governments

February 10, 2018

The public debt ratio of the developed world has remained stuck at a 200-year record high, even with a mature global expansion and negative real interest rates. This poses a systemic threat to the global financial system for at least three reasons. First, governments’ capacity to stabilize financial and economic cycles is more limited than in past decades, which matters greatly in a highly leveraged world that has grown used to public backstops. Second, many countries have taken recourse to mild forms of “financial repression”, which puts pressure on the financial position of savers and related institutions, such as pension funds.  Third, future political changes in the direction of populist fiscal expansion can easily raise the spectres of old-fashioned inflationary monetization or even forms of debt restructuring.

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Information inefficiency in market experiments

February 3, 2018

Experimental research illustrates the mechanics of market inefficiency. If information is costly traders will only procure it to the extent that markets are seen as inefficient. In particular, when observing others’ investment in information, traders will cut their own information spending. Full information efficiency can never be reached. Moreover, business models that invest heavily in information may have higher trading profits, but still earn lower overall profits due to the costs of improving their signals. What seems crucial is high cognitive reflection so as to invest in relevant information where or when others do not.

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Basic theory of momentum strategies

January 27, 2018

Systematic momentum trading is a major alternative risk premium strategy across asset classes. Time series momentum motivates trend following; cross section momentum gives rise to ‘winners-minus-losers strategies’. Trend following is a market directional strategy that promises ‘convex beta’ and ‘good diversification’ for outright long and carry portfolios as it normally performs well in protracted good and bad times alike. It works best if the underlying assets earn high absolute (positive or negative) Sharpe ratios and display low correlation. By contrast, cross section momentum strategies benefit from high absolute correlation of underlying contracts and are more suitable for trading assets of a homogeneous class. The main pitfalls of both momentum strategies are jump events and high costs of ‘gamma trading’ conjoined with high leverage.

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Overconfidence and inattention as asset return factors

January 20, 2018

Overconfidence in personal beliefs and inattention to new trends are widespread in financial markets. If specific behavioural biases become common across investors they constitute sources of mispricing and – hence – return factors. Indeed, overconfidence and inattention can be quantified as factors to an equity market pricing model and seem to capture a wide range of pricing anomalies. This suggests that detecting sources of behavioural biases, such as attachment to ideological views or laziness in the analysis of data, offers opportunities for systematic returns.

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asset management Asset Purchase Program banks bond returns bond yields bubbles capital regulation carry China collateral commodities credit returns default ECB economic data EM equity returns euro area crisis Fed financial crisis FX FX interventions FX returns government debt government deficits herding inflation information insurances Japan leverage liquidity machine learning market turmoil price factors regulation risk management shadow banking statistical methods term structure trend following variance risk premium VIX volatility ZLB
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Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.

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