Macrosynergy Research is dedicated to educating the investment and academic communities on the importance of constructing and employing macro quantamental trading strategies into investment portfolio construction. These are alternative investment management styles based on macroeconomic and policy trends. If the right principles and ethics are applied, social and economic benefits arise from an improved information value of market prices, increased efficiency of capital allocation and reduced risk of financial crises.
Inflation expectations wield great influence over fixed income returns. They determine the nominal yield required for a given equilibrium real interest rate, they influence inflation risk premia, and they shape
A theoretical paper shows that a downward shift in expected inflation increases equity valuations and credit default risk at the same time. The reason for this is “nominal stickiness”. A
Inflation risk premia in the U.S. and the euro area have disappeared or even turned negative since the great financial crisis, according to various studies. There is also evidence that
Two recent empirical studies highlight the risk that inflation expectations in the euro area are becoming de-anchored, similar to Japan. De-anchoring means that short-term price shocks can change long-term expectations. Importantly, the papers suggest
The variance risk premium manifests as a long-term difference between option-implied and expected realized asset price volatility. It compensates investors for taking short volatility risk, which typically comes with a
The risk reversal premium manifests as an overpricing of out-of-the-money put options relative to out-of-the-money call options with equal expiration dates. The premium apparently arises from equity investors’ demand for
In financial markets, risk refers to the probability distribution of future returns. Uncertainty is a broader concept that encompasses ambiguity about the parameters of this probability distribution. There are various
The volatility risk premium compensates investors for taking volatility risk. Conceptually it is based on the difference between options-implied and expected realized volatility. In equity markets this premium should be
Systematic default risk is the probability of a critical share of the corporate sector defaulting simultaneously. It can be analyzed through a corporate default model
An empirical analysis of the U.S. bond market since the 1960s emphasizes occasional abrupt regime changes, as defined by yield levels, curve slopes, and related
A new theoretical paper illustrates the logic behind runs and crashes in modern safe asset markets. Safe assets are characterized by stable value and high
Reliance on linear correlation coefficients and joint normal distribution of returns in multi-asset trading strategies can be badly misleading. Such conventions often overestimate diversification benefits
Jupyter Notebook Rising inflation is a natural headwind for equity markets in economies with inflation-targeting central banks. As consumer prices accelerate, expected monetary policy rates
Jupyter Notebook of factor calculation Jupyter Notebook of statistical learning There is sound reason and evidence for the predictive power of macro indicators for relative
Jupyter Notebook Developing macro strategies for cross-country equity futures trading is challenging due to the diverse and dynamic nature of equity indices and the global
Jupyter Notebook Macro-quantamental scorecards are condensed visualizations of point-in-time economic information for a specific financial market. Their defining characteristic is the combination of efficient presentation
Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge volume
The VIX futures curve reflects expectations of future implied volatility of S&P500 index options. The slope of the curve is indicative of expected volatility and
Options-implied volatility of U.S. equity prices is measured by the volatility index, VIX. Options-implied volatility of volatility is measured by the volatility-of-volatility index, VVIX. Importantly,
The statistical term ‘fat tails’ refers to probability distributions with relatively high probability of extreme outcomes. Fat tails also imply strong influence of extreme observations
The correlation of equity and high grade sovereign bond returns is a powerful driver of portfolio construction and the term premia of interest rates. This
Covered interest parity is an arbitrage condition that equalizes costs of direct USD funding and of synthetic USD funding through FX swaps. Deviations are called
Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for over eighteen years. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.
