Evaluating macro trading signals in three simple steps

Inventory scores and metal futures returns

FX trading signals with regression-based learning

Macroeconomic data and systematic trading strategies

Macrosynergy Research

Macrosynergy Research is dedicated to educating the investment and academic communities on the importance of constructing and employing macro quantamental trading strategies into investment portfolio construction. These are alternative investment management styles based on macroeconomic and policy trends. If the right principles and ethics are applied, social and economic benefits arise from an improved information value of market prices, increased efficiency of capital allocation and reduced risk of financial crises.

Thematic collection: equity returns

Macro trends and equity allocation: a brief introduction

Generic derivative returns and carry (for strategy testing)

Backtesting of macro trading strategies requires good approximate profit-and-loss data for standard derivatives positions, particularly in equity, foreign exchange, and rates markets. Practical calculation methods of generic proxy returns not

Equity market timing: the value of consumption data

Jupyter Notebook The dividend discount model suggests that stock prices are negatively related to expected real interest rates and positively to earnings growth. The economic position of households or consumers

Tracking systematic default risk

Systematic default risk is the probability of a critical share of the corporate sector defaulting simultaneously. It can be analyzed through a corporate default model that accounts for both firm-level

Variance risk premia for patient investors

The variance risk premium manifests as a long-term difference between option-implied and expected realized asset price volatility. It compensates investors for taking short volatility risk, which typically comes with a

The risk-reversal premium

The risk reversal premium manifests as an overpricing of out-of-the-money put options relative to out-of-the-money call options with equal expiration dates. The premium apparently arises from equity investors’ demand for

Measures of market risk and uncertainty

In financial markets, risk refers to the probability distribution of future returns. Uncertainty is a broader concept that encompasses ambiguity about the parameters of this probability distribution. There are various

Realistic volatility risk premia

The volatility risk premium compensates investors for taking volatility risk. Conceptually it is based on the difference between options-implied and expected realized volatility. In equity markets this premium should be

Systemic Risk

Tracking systematic default risk

Systematic default risk is the probability of a critical share of the corporate sector defaulting simultaneously. It can be analyzed through a corporate default model

Crashes in safe asset markets

A new theoretical paper illustrates the logic behind runs and crashes in modern safe asset markets. Safe assets are characterized by stable value and high

Copulas and trading strategies

Reliance on linear correlation coefficients and joint normal distribution of returns in multi-asset trading strategies can be badly misleading. Such conventions often overestimate diversification benefits

Systematic Value

Inventory scores and metal futures returns

Jupyter Notebook Inventory scores are quantamental (point-in-time) indicators of the inventory states and dynamics of economies or commodity sectors. Inventory scores plausibly predict base metal

FX trading signals with regression-based learning

Jupyter Notebook Regression-based statistical learning helps build trading signals from multiple candidate constituents. The method optimizes models and hyperparameters sequentially and produces point-in-time signals for

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Leverage in asset management

Asset managers can use leverage to enhance returns. Outside hedge funds, such leverage is modest as share of assets under management. However, considering the huge volume

VIX term structure as a trading signal

The VIX futures curve reflects expectations of future implied volatility of S&P500 index options. The slope of the curve is indicative of expected volatility and

The importance of volatility of volatility

Options-implied volatility of U.S. equity prices is measured by the volatility index, VIX. Options-implied volatility of volatility is measured by the volatility-of-volatility index, VVIX. Importantly,

Understanding dollar cross-currency basis

Covered interest parity is an arbitrage condition that equalizes costs of direct USD funding and of synthetic USD funding through FX swaps. Deviations are called