A new empirical study confirms that export price changes explain a substantial part of commodity currency fluctuations, particularly at high frequencies. More importantly, country-specific export price indices help predicting commodity countries’ future exchange rate dynamics. The predictive power appears to be most robust over a horizon of one month.
Macrosynergy is a London based macroeconomic research and technology company whose founders have developed and employed macro quantamental investment strategies in liquid, tradable asset classes, across many markets and for a variety of different factors to generate competitive, uncorrelated investment returns for institutional investors for two decades. Our quantitative-fundamental (quantamental) computing system tracks a broad range of real-time macroeconomic trends in developed and emerging countries, transforming them into macro systematic quantamental investment strategies. In June 2020 Macrosynergy and J.P. Morgan started a collaboration to scale the quantamental system and to popularize tradable economics across financial markets.
