1 Australia (ASX SPI 200)

	ASX SPI 200 Index				for comparison	historic references
Australia valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	5	3.9	3.7	3.8	2.4	1	3.2
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.8	6.4	6.4	6.4	7.2	7.2	7.4
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.28	0.33	0.38	0.4	0.43	0.37	0.38
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.36	0.32	0.32	0.31	0.35	0.52	0.39
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.34	0.46	0.52	0.55	0.52	0.3	0.45
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-4.1	3.8	5.2	4.6	4.7	1.6	0.5
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	4.1	-1.6	-3.2	-2.8	-0.3	-0.7	-0.8
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	2.7	3.1	1.9	2.1	2.2	3.2	2.7
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	0.4	-0.8	-0.4	-1	-0.7	-0.4	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	-3.2	3.1	6.7	6.4	-1.4	0.6	-1.2
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.4	1.3	1	0.8	0.1	-0.3	0.4
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.8	2.3	2.2	2.2	1.8	0.5	2.1
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-2.1	-0.9	0	0.5	2.2	-4.7	-1
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0	2.2	5.9	5.5	10.1	5	2.7
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	20	14.6	12.9	12.2	14.6	16.2	15.3
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	24.3	19.2	16.9	15.8	17.6	22.5	20.4
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.2	-0.4	-0.3	0.4	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

2 Brazil (BOVESPA)

	BOVESPA Index				for comparison	historic references
Brazil valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	-4.3	-2.1	-1.5	-1.1	2.4	-5.1	-2.4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	9.5	7.5	8.3	8.5	7.2	13.3	9.7
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.23	0.2	0.25	0.28	0.43	0.37	0.35
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.33	0.24	0.26	0.27	0.35	0.46	0.38
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.06	0.02	0.08	0.11	0.52	0.14	0.21
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-8.6	-2.3	16	16.2	4.7	2.4	0
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-3	-6.9	-8.5	-7.9	-0.3	-1.6	-0.7
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	-5.7	-2.5	-2.6	-2.1	2.2	3.6	1.7
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-0.5	0	-0.5	-1.5	-0.7	-0.5	0.2
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	3.8	-4.1	-3.9	-4.2	-1.4	-0.6	0.4
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	-5.4	-3.1	-2	-1.3	0.1	-1.5	-2.1
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	-6.3	-2.4	-2.8	-2.3	1.8	-4.8	-2.6
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	0.8	2.3	2.2	2.4	2.2	1.8	0.1
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	-1	3.6	3.1	5	10.1	11.6	6.7
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	30.5	26.3	24.1	22.8	14.6	33	22.1
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	40.5	36.9	33	30.7	17.6	41.1	29.6
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-1.1	-0.2	1	0.4	0	-0.1	-0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

3 Canada (TSX)

	TSX Index				for comparison	historic references
Canada valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.4	3.5	3.3	3.4	2.4	0.4	3
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.7	6.2	6.3	6.3	7.2	7.2	7.1
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.28	0.36	0.43	0.46	0.43	0.38	0.4
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.32	0.3	0.31	0.31	0.35	0.39	0.35
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.41	0.63	0.76	0.77	0.52	0.39	0.58
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-6.2	6.5	6.3	4.4	4.7	2.3	0.6
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	4.4	-1	-0.7	-1.3	-0.3	-1.8	0.4
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	0.3	1.5	1.7	1.6	2.2	1.8	2.1
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	0.4	-0.1	-2.3	-0.4	-0.7	-0.7	0.2
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	1.5	0.8	0	0.2	-1.4	-1.6	0.1
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0	0.4	0.5	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.3
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.8	2.5	2.1	2.1	1.8	1	2.2
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-4.2	-5.3	-5.4	-5.2	2.2	0.6	-3.8
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	7.8	6.5	6.4	6.3	10.1	2.7	4.5
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	18.9	11.5	9.6	9.5	14.6	18.9	14.3
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	24	17	14.6	13.9	17.6	23.1	19.2
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0	-0.2	0	0	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

4 France (CAC 40)

	CAC 40 Index				for comparison	historic references
France valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.8	4.8	4.5	4.6	2.4	1.9	4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	7.3	7.4	7.2	7.2	7.2	8.3	8.7
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.28	0.39	0.46	0.49	0.43	0.46	0.43
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.34	0.32	0.31	0.31	0.35	0.45	0.41
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.33	0.46	0.55	0.59	0.52	0.4	0.48
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-4.8	3.4	2.7	3.7	4.7	1.7	0.3
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	3.3	-1.3	-1	-1.1	-0.3	-2.1	0.8
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.2	1	1	1.2	2.2	1.1	1
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.4	0.3	0	0.3	-0.7	-0.3	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	0.9	-0.5	-0.6	-0.4	-1.4	-1.4	0.4
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.4	2.3	2.2	2.3	1.8	0	1.4
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	1.7	1.3	0.9	0.7	2.2	-1.1	0.6
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	25	25	25	25	10.1	0.6	5.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	25.9	19.1	15.7	14.8	14.6	21.7	21.2
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	25.9	19.1	15.7	14.8	17.6	21.7	21.2
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.2	-0.2	-0.1	0	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

5 Germany (DAX)

	DAX Index				for comparison	historic references
Germany valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.7	4.2	4	4.1	2.4	0.9	3.6
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	8.6	8	7.5	7.4	7.2	8.2	8.8
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.32	0.42	0.47	0.5	0.43	0.43	0.46
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.4	0.36	0.34	0.33	0.35	0.4	0.44
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.37	0.51	0.57	0.61	0.52	0.36	0.52
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	0.6	1.6	2.7	3.3	4.7	2.9	2.3
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	3.5	-1	-0.6	-0.9	-0.3	-2.2	1.2
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.3	1.7	2	1.8	2.2	0.7	1.8
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.4	0.3	0	0.3	-0.7	-0.3	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	1	-0.8	-1.4	-1.3	-1.4	-1.1	0.5
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.9	3	2.7	2.9	1.8	-0.6	1.9
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	1.7	1.3	0.9	0.7	2.2	-1.1	0.6
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	25	25	25	25	10.1	0.6	5.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	27	19	16.1	14.9	14.6	23	20
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	27	19	16.1	14.9	17.6	23	20
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.8	0.1	-0.3	-0.2	0	-0.1	0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

6 India (NIFTY)

	NIFTY Index				for comparison	historic references
India valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	-1.2	-0.3	-0.6	-1	2.4	0.7	0.7
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.4	6.1	6	5.7	7.2	7	6.6
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.31	0.36	0.41	0.41	0.43	0.27	0.31
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.41	0.39	0.38	0.37	0.35	0.59	0.4
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.19	0.29	0.31	0.31	0.52	0.25	0.31
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-2.7	2.7	2.3	0.6	4.7	4.1	1.6
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	1.3	2.6	3.1	2.3	-0.3	3.7	2.7
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	7	6.7	7.6	6.6	2.2	7.9	7.2
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	0.8	-0.6	-0.2	-0.7	-0.7	0.2	0.3
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	3.2	-2	-4	-4.8	-1.4	-0.7	1.4
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	-1.1	-0.5	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	0.3	-1.7
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	3.8	5.4	5	4.7	1.8	5.8	6.8
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	0.3	1.8	1.4	1.4	2.2	0.2	-1.5
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	10.9	4.9	1.3	0	10.1	14.4	5.2
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	17.7	14.2	12.7	11.9	14.6	29.2	17.4
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	20.8	16.9	14.7	13.7	17.6	30.8	21.6
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.4	0.1	-0.1	-0.2	0	-0.1	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

7 Italy (FTSE-MIB)

	FTSE-MIB Index				for comparison	historic references
Italy valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.3	4.3	3.9	3.9	2.4	2.6	3.3
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	7.5	7.9	7.3	7.2	7.2	8.1	8.7
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.24	0.3	0.32	0.33	0.43	0.5	0.35
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.35	0.33	0.29	0.29	0.35	0.51	0.38
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.29	0.35	0.37	0.39	0.52	0.45	0.4
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-7.6	5.6	3.2	2.3	4.7	2.4	-1.1
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	2	-1.2	-1.1	-1.2	-0.3	-2.4	-0.3
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	0.9	1.1	1	1.1	2.2	0.1	-0.2
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.4	0.3	0	0.3	-0.7	-0.3	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	1.7	0	-0.5	-0.4	-1.4	-1.2	0.9
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	0.5	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	1.8	-0.7	-1.1
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	1.7	1.3	0.9	0.7	2.2	-1.1	0.6
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	25	25	25	25	10.1	0.6	5.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	31	26.6	23.3	22.1	14.6	19.4	25.5
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	31	26.6	23.3	22.1	17.6	19.4	25.5
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.6	0.3	-0.2	-0.7	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

8 Japan (Nikkei 225)

	Nikkei 225 Index				for comparison	historic references
Japan valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	3.5	3.1	3	3	2.4	0.9	2.4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	8.2	6.8	6.9	7	7.2	5.7	7.4
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.25	0.25	0.31	0.33	0.43	0.27	0.34
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.46	0.36	0.36	0.38	0.35	0.42	0.54
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.29	0.3	0.35	0.38	0.52	0.27	0.36
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-2.6	2.7	5.2	6.4	4.7	1.3	3
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-0.8	-6.7	-5.6	-4.4	-0.3	-1.2	0.3
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.2	1.1	1.3	1.6	2.2	0.4	1.3
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-3	1.9	1.6	-0.2	-0.7	-0.2	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	-0.4	-5.9	-5.1	-4.4	-1.4	-1.5	0.4
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.8	1.8	1.8	1.7	0.1	1.2	1.7
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	1.8	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.8	0.2	0.8
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	0.3	1.3	1.5	1.5	2.2	2.7	0.2
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	25	23	22.3	22.2	10.1	3.5	16.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	32.7	26.9	22.5	21	14.6	25.2	22.9
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	32.7	26.9	22.5	21	17.6	25.2	22.9
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.7	-0.6	-0.2	0.1	0	0	0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

9 Korea (KOSPI)

	KOSPI Index				for comparison	historic references
Korea valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	2.1	1.5	1.7	1.4	2.4	0.3	0.9
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	9.8	10.1	10.3	10.7	7.2	10.8	10.7
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.44	0.47	0.52	0.58	0.43	0.36	0.51
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.5	0.45	0.45	0.47	0.35	0.38	0.49
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.56	0.72	0.84	0.91	0.52	0.33	0.62
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-5.1	3.7	8.8	11.2	4.7	2.1	1
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-0.2	-1.9	-1.6	-0.6	-0.3	1.4	-0.9
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	3.1	2.6	1.8	2.3	2.2	3.8	3.5
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	5.8	1	-1.2	-2.6	-0.7	0.4	-0.5
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	9.9	-5.7	-8.9	-12.9	-1.4	-0.8	-1.3
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.6	0.4	0.2	0.4	0.1	0	0.8
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	3.4	3	3	3	1.8	2.5	3.1
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	9.2	8.1	8.2	8.1	2.2	1.8	6.3
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	5.5	6.9	3.9	4.2	10.1	7.3	8.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	17.8	14.4	12.7	12.2	14.6	34	19.4
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	22.1	21.7	19.6	18.4	17.6	35.7	22.8
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.1	-0.4	0.3	0.2	0	-0.1	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

10 Malaysia (FTSE-KLCI)

	FTSE-KLCI Index				for comparison	historic references
Malaysia valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	1.1	1.1	1.3	1.2	2.4	1.4	1.5
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.3	6.3	6.2	6.2	7.2	7.3	6.6
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.28	0.38	0.44	0.47	0.43	0.46	0.44
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.4	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.35	0.97	0.67
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.31	0.56	0.62	0.64	0.52	0.41	0.51
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-1.1	-0.4	1.3	2	4.7	1.9	0.8
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	5.1	1.7	1.3	1.6	-0.3	2.1	2.6
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	4.5	4.3	4.7	4.5	2.2	4.9	5.4
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.9	8.8	5.8	1.2	-0.7	0.3	0.6
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	17.6	1.8	10.1	10.5	-1.4	0.8	0.7
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.1	1.3	1.1	-0.6	0.1	1.2	0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	3.6	3.3	3.5	3.4	1.8	4.3	4
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	2.6	2.3	2.6	2.6	2.2	14.1	5.4
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0	0.7	1.4	1.8	10.1	5.2	6.4
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	15.4	9.1	8.1	7.7	14.6	17.3	11.3
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	22.1	16.5	14.3	13	17.6	18.2	15.6
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0	0.1	-0.1	0	0	-0.1	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

11 Mexico (MEXBOL)

	MEXBOL Index				for comparison	historic references
Mexico valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	-0.6	-2.2	-2.4	-2.3	2.4	-2.9	-0.6
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	5.8	5.9	6.1	6.2	7.2	8.1	6.1
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.25	0.2	0.23	0.24	0.43	0.31	0.29
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.27	0.24	0.26	0.24	0.35	0.34	0.28
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.31	0.22	0.2	0.19	0.52	0.17	0.35
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	4	4.8	9.8	8.4	4.7	4.4	0.9
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	5.3	4.6	5.1	5.5	-0.3	1.4	1
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	2.4	2.1	2.2	2.4	2.2	2	3
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	4.4	3.2	5	-0.9	-0.7	0.6	0.6
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	7.1	8.2	9.2	7.8	-1.4	3.8	1.9
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.2	-0.3	-1.3	-1.5	0.1	-1.3	-0.4
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	0	-1.2	-1.4	-1.3	1.8	-2.1	0.4
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-0.7	-0.5	-0.1	-0.1	2.2	1.1	-0.5
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0	0	1.8	2	10.1	10.2	8.7
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	14.8	14.9	14.7	14	14.6	25.8	15.1
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	23.2	29.8	26.8	25.6	17.6	29.6	21.8
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.3	0.5	-0.1	-0.3	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

12 Netherlands (AEX)

	AEX Index				for comparison	historic references
Netherlands valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	5.5	4.9	4.6	4.8	2.4	2.2	4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.1	6.5	6.4	6.3	7.2	9.1	8.5
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.24	0.37	0.45	0.48	0.43	0.5	0.49
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.29	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.35	0.48	0.45
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.31	0.46	0.55	0.59	0.52	0.43	0.58
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-9.9	6.9	7	6	4.7	0	0.9
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	4.3	-0.9	-0.5	-0.7	-0.3	-2.2	1.5
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.1	2.5	2.8	2.7	2.2	1.5	0.8
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.4	0.3	0	0.3	-0.7	-0.3	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	-0.1	-0.7	-0.8	-0.6	-1.4	-1.1	0.4
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.7	2.4	2.4	2.6	1.8	0.1	1.8
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	1.7	1.3	0.9	0.7	2.2	-1.1	0.6
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	25	25	25	25	10.1	0.6	5.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	25.1	17.4	14.3	13.4	14.6	23	18.1
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	25.1	17.4	14.3	13.4	17.6	23	18.1
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-1.5	0	-0.1	0	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

13 Poland (WIG 20)

	WIG 20 Index				for comparison	historic references
Poland valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	2.8	2	0.9	0.8	2.4	-0.7	2.2
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	8.4	8.7	7.9	7.8	7.2	8.3	8.7
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.36	0.42	0.41	0.4	0.43	0.28	0.37
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.48	0.47	0.42	0.4	0.35	0.46	0.45
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.38	0.45	0.43	0.42	0.52	0.21	0.42
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-4.9	-1.6	4.9	9.4	4.7	1.9	-0.1
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	2.9	1.1	0.8	0.8	-0.3	1.6	0.9
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	4.6	2.5	2.5	2.7	2.2	4.6	3.1
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-0.3	1.8	0.2	-2.1	-0.7	-0.2	0.2
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	3.5	0.7	-0.3	-1.1	-1.4	-0.5	0.6
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	3	2.7	2.1	1.5	0.1	0.7	1.2
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2	1.3	0.9	1	1.8	0.2	1.6
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	1.9	1.5	1.5	1.3	2.2	-1.5	-1.1
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0.8	16.1	11.8	8.2	10.1	9.8	3.5
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	20.9	18.2	17.4	17.4	14.6	27.3	19.3
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	23.5	20.8	19.5	19.6	17.6	31.7	24.6
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.1	-0.1	-0.7	-0.7	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

14 Singapore (MSCI Free)

	MSCI Free Index				for comparison	historic references
Singapore valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	3.9	3.3	3.2	3.3	2.4	3.2	4.4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	8.7	7.7	7.3	7.3	7.2	7.2	7.6
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.43	0.48	0.5	0.53	0.43	0.37	0.5
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.61	0.49	0.47	0.46	0.35	0.51	0.54
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.45	0.57	0.63	0.67	0.52	0.36	0.68
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-3.7	-0.3	-0.5	0.2	4.7	2.4	0.5
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	0.7	-0.9	0.3	0.7	-0.3	1.6	0.5
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.3	1.2	2.7	2.9	2.2	5.9	5.6
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.1	3.3	-1.4	-3.6	-0.7	-0.8	-1.3
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	9	-5.5	-9.8	-12.7	-1.4	-6.7	-3
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	2.7	2.1	1.8	1.5	0.1	-0.4	0.8
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	3.5	3.7	3.9	4.1	1.8	4.2	5
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	17.5	17.4	16	14.8	2.2	23	19
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0	3.4	1.3	4.7	10.1	7.4	7.4
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	19.7	14.6	12.6	11.9	14.6	22	14.5
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	20.4	16	14.7	13.7	17.6	22.7	16.4
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.1	-0.4	0.3	0.1	0	0.1	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

15 South Africa (FTSE-JSE Top 40)

	FTSE-JSE Top 40 Index				for comparison	historic references
South Africa valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	-0.6	-0.2	0	0.3	2.4	-1.2	0.3
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	7.1	7.2	6.9	7	7.2	9.9	7.8
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.24	0.27	0.28	0.31	0.43	0.39	0.32
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.28	0.25	0.23	0.23	0.35	0.51	0.33
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.23	0.31	0.32	0.34	0.52	0.27	0.41
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	1.9	-1.2	-0.7	-1.5	4.7	1.9	1.6
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	5.7	0.9	-3.5	-6.6	-0.3	-1.1	1.1
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	0.5	0.7	0.6	0.7	2.2	3.8	2
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	4	-4.3	-0.7	-3.2	-0.7	-0.1	0.7
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	7	1.2	-3.6	-6.7	-1.4	1	2.1
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	-1.4	-1.5	-1.8	-1.5	0.1	-0.5	-0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	-1.8	-0.8	-0.8	-0.6	1.8	-0.3	0.7
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-5.2	-4.7	-4.3	-4	2.2	-2.6	-3.2
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0	2.5	5.6	5.2	10.1	11.7	4
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	21.8	16.9	15.9	15.2	14.6	23.4	17.3
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	29.8	27.2	24.3	22.8	17.6	30	25.5
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-0.2	-0.1	1.2	0.8	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

16 Spain (IBEX)

	IBEX Index				for comparison	historic references
Spain valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	5.8	4.7	4.5	4.5	2.4	2.1	4.4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	7.5	7.4	7.2	7.1	7.2	8.1	8.5
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.28	0.32	0.37	0.39	0.43	0.46	0.35
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.34	0.29	0.27	0.28	0.35	0.49	0.39
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.32	0.38	0.44	0.47	0.52	0.44	0.4
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-8.2	3.8	6	6.5	4.7	3.1	-1.4
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	4.4	-0.5	-0.3	-0.4	-0.3	-1.6	0.8
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	3.6	3.2	3.1	3	2.2	2.5	0.1
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.4	0.3	0	0.3	-0.7	-0.3	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	0.6	-0.9	-1	-0.9	-1.4	-1	0.5
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.1	1.1	0.7	0.4	0.1	-0.1	0.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	0.9	1	1.2	1.1	1.8	1.8	-0.4
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	1.7	1.3	0.9	0.7	2.2	-1.1	0.6
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	25	25	25	25	10.1	0.6	5.9
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	27.3	23	19.6	18.3	14.6	20.5	24.3
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	27.3	23	19.6	18.3	17.6	20.5	24.3
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.3	0	0.1	-0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

17 Sweden (OMX Stockholm)

	OMX Stockholm Index				for comparison	historic references
Sweden valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.9	5.1	4.4	4.8	2.4	0.4	3.2
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.8	6.3	6.2	6.1	7.2	7.4	7.3
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.25	0.3	0.35	0.37	0.43	0.34	0.35
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.32	0.29	0.28	0.29	0.35	0.37	0.35
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.34	0.44	0.52	0.56	0.52	0.32	0.43
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-5.3	0.5	2.1	2.5	4.7	2.5	1.7
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	2.8	-0.4	2.2	2.8	-0.3	0.7	-0.1
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	4.5	2.5	2.8	2.3	2.2	2	2.5
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-0.7	2	-3	-1.2	-0.7	0	0
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	-1.3	2.4	2	1.7	-1.4	-0.4	-0.8
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.8	0.7	0.2	0.5	0.1	0.5	1
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	3.4	3.7	3.8	4.1	1.8	0.8	2.1
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	2.4	2.1	2.4	2.5	2.2	5.3	2.6
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	-11.1	0	0	0	10.1	1.2	-1.7
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	25.8	19.5	16.2	14.9	14.6	23.6	19.7
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	27.5	20.8	17.5	16.3	17.6	25.4	22.1
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.5	0	-0.3	-0.2	0	0.1	-0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

18 Switzerland (MSCI Switzerland)

	MSCI Switzerland Index				for comparison	historic references
Switzerland valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.6	4.5	4.4	4.5	2.4	1.2	3.6
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.5	6.4	6.1	6	7.2	7.3	7.3
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.3	0.42	0.45	0.47	0.43	0.47	0.5
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.41	0.41	0.4	0.41	0.35	0.55	0.62
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.35	0.5	0.56	0.59	0.52	0.45	0.54
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-5.4	3.1	2.2	1.4	4.7	1.7	0.1
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-7.1	1.2	0.2	0	-0.3	0.1	-1.7
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	0.5	1.8	1.7	1.6	2.2	2	1.7
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-1.7	-0.6	-1.1	-0.6	-0.7	-0.2	-0.7
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	0.5	-1	-2.2	-2.1	-1.4	-1.5	-2.7
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	2.5	1.7	1.6	1.3	0.1	0.6	1.6
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.9	2.9	2.8	3	1.8	1.3	2.4
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	8.7	8.5	7.8	7.5	2.2	5.6	6.3
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	12.2	10.7	12.5	13.2	10.1	4.2	11.8
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	21.8	15.3	13.3	12.5	14.6	19.1	16
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	21.7	15.1	13.6	12.7	17.6	17.8	15.8
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	0	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

19 Thailand (SET 50)

	SET 50 Index				for comparison	historic references
Thailand valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	3.1	2.6	2.4	2.5	2.4	1.8	2.2
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	7.3	6.8	6.6	6.7	7.2	10.2	8
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.35	0.36	0.4	0.44	0.43	0.4	0.38
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.46	0.48	0.46	0.47	0.35	0.95	0.59
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.35	0.37	0.43	0.48	0.52	0.38	0.38
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-4.8	1.6	2.2	2.9	4.7	3	1.7
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	0.8	0.9	0.7	0.3	-0.3	1.3	1
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	2.7	3	3.1	2.9	2.2	4.3	3.6
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	0	-1.3	-1.7	-0.8	-0.7	-0.3	-0.3
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	7.9	-1.6	-3.5	-4.2	-1.4	-2.1	-0.4
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	2.4	1.8	1.3	1.5	0.1	-0.3	0.3
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.5	2.2	2	2.1	1.8	3.2	2.8
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	9	10.9	10.5	10.7	2.2	5	4.4
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	1.5	2.5	4.2	5.2	10.1	8.1	4.5
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	20.1	17.9	15.3	14.2	14.6	26.6	20.7
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	20.9	19	16.5	15.2	17.6	28.2	21.8
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.9	1.3	0.2	0.3	0	-0.1	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

20 Taiwan (TWSE)

	TWSE Index				for comparison	historic references
Taiwan valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	3.9	3.9	3.7	3.7	2.4	3.9	3.1
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	8.2	7.6	7.7	7.6	7.2	7.4	7.6
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.39	0.4	0.44	0.45	0.43	0.29	0.42
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.53	0.46	0.46	0.43	0.35	0.46	0.59
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.42	0.49	0.56	0.57	0.52	0.28	0.47
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-2	5.3	5	3.7	4.7	2.9	1.9
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-1.5	-0.1	-1.5	-2.5	-0.3	2.3	0.8
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	-0.8	2.1	3.2	2.9	2.2	3.9	3.9
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	2.1	-4.5	-3.8	-3.6	-0.7	0.5	-0.6
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	4.4	-7.2	-11.6	-14.5	-1.4	-4	-1.3
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.5	0.1	0	-0.5	0.1	0.2	0.3
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.9	3.3	2.3	2.3	1.8	4.8	4
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	11.9	11	11.3	11.3	2.2	5.7	8.7
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	5.2	4.8	4.6	6.1	10.1	7	5.7
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	19.3	16.2	14.4	13.8	14.6	28.1	16.9
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	21.1	19.2	17.6	16.6	17.6	28.9	18.6
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-0.3	0	0.2	-0.1	0	0.1	0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

21 Turkey (ISE National)

	ISE National Index				for comparison	historic references
Turkey valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	-0.7	-0.8	-1.8	-1.8	2.4	-7	-0.1
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	12.1	13.3	11.8	11.9	7.2	11.2	10.7
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.39	0.51	0.41	0.43	0.43	0.26	0.36
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.53	0.6	0.51	0.53	0.35	0.56	0.53
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.3	0.53	0.37	0.39	0.52	0.06	0.34
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	3.5	4.2	5.2	5.9	4.7	4.6	2.1
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	4.1	-2.1	-1.8	0.6	-0.3	0	2.4
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	4.6	1.1	0.6	1.8	2.2	4.4	5.1
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	0.7	4.3	7.2	2.8	-0.7	0.2	0.8
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	5.4	1.3	5.5	6.1	-1.4	0.5	2.7
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	-4.6	-2.1	-3	-3.5	0.1	-1.7	-2
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	0.4	0.4	0	-0.1	1.8	-4.8	1.7
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-4.9	-5	-5	-5.2	2.2	-5.1	-6.5
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0	1.5	3.3	3.9	10.1	15.8	4.5
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	23.2	20.8	20	19.1	14.6	35	25
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	31	26.2	28.6	27.7	17.6	43.9	30.4
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-0.1	0	-0.4	-0.4	0	0.2	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

22 U.S. (S&P 500)

	S&P 500 Index				for comparison	historic references
U.S. valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	2.6	1.9	1.8	1.7	2.4	0.3	2.4
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.4	5.9	5.8	5.6	7.2	6.8	7.1
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.35	0.49	0.58	0.6	0.43	0.46	0.48
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.34	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.35	0.39	0.41
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.41	0.57	0.67	0.7	0.52	0.38	0.58
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-2.3	2	2.4	1.9	4.7	1.3	2
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-4.8	-0.9	-1.3	-1.8	-0.3	0.6	-0.6
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.9	1.7	1.8	1.9	2.2	1.7	2
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	-0.4	-1.4	-0.7	0.4	-0.7	0.2	-0.2
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	-2.3	-0.7	-1.1	-1	-1.4	0.3	-0.7
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.1	0	0.5
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	1.8	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.8	0.9	2
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-2.5	-2.3	-2.3	-2.3	2.2	-5.5	-3.3
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0.1	-0.5	-0.5	-0.5	10.1	4.9	10.3
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	18	12.1	10.1	9.3	14.6	18.8	15.5
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	18	12.1	10.1	9.3	17.6	18.8	15.5
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	0.1	-0.2	-0.3	-0.2	0	0	0
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

23 UK (FTSE 100)

	FTSE 100 Index				for comparison	historic references
UK valuation and macro trend indicators as of 2017-02-28
	12m ago	3m ago	1m ago	latest	Global [1]	2003-2009	2010-2016
Valuation metrics
Dividend yield minus local real (blended) yield [2]	4.7	4.5	4.4	4.6	2.4	1	4.1
Forward earnings yield (FEY) [3]	6.6	7	7	6.9	7.2	7.7	8.4
Vol-adjusted FEY (international perspective) [4]	0.28	0.33	0.4	0.42	0.43	0.49	0.52
Beta-adjusted FEY (global portfolio perspective) [5]	0.31	0.29	0.29	0.28	0.35	0.48	0.47
Vol-adjusted local FEY premium (over local real interest rate) [6]	0.34	0.52	0.63	0.68	0.52	0.33	0.67
Earnings per share (EPS) trend
EPS forecast momentum, % [7]	-3.3	11.7	6.7	5.1	4.7	2.7	0.7
Macro trend-driven EPS outperformance, % [8]	-3.8	10.5	11.6	11.6	-0.3	2.2	-0.9
Current local GDP growth trend, %oya [9]	1.7	2	1.8	2	2.2	1.5	1.9
Adjusted nominal effective depreciation, % over 3 months [10]	5.1	0.4	-3	0.8	-0.7	0.5	0.1
Medium-term estimated FX and terms-of-trade benefit [11]	0.7	10.9	8.9	7.3	-1.4	2.2	-0.1
Monetary policy accomodation
Broad inflation shortfall (+ means inflation too low) [12]	1.2	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.2	0
Real yield shortfall (+ means real yields accommodative) [13]	2.3	2.6	2.6	2.7	1.8	-0.2	2
External basic balance of the currency area, % of GDP [14]	-0.9	-2.2	-1.7	-1.7	2.2	-3.5	-2.5
Intervention-driven monetary expansion trend [15]	0.1	5.3	11.3	14.1	10.1	4	7.6
Technical indicators
Annualized volatility in local currency [16]	21.5	15.8	13.1	12	14.6	18.7	15.7
Annualized volatility in USD [17]	23.7	21.1	17.6	16.2	17.6	19.7	17.2
Estimated recent relative distortion payback [18]	-2.3	0.3	0	0.3	0	0	-0.1
[1] This is the unweighted average for all 23 country equity indices [2] Dividend yield minus 5-year local blended (government bond and IRS) real yield. [3] The forward earnings yield predictions are based on forecasts for the next fiscal year. [4] IBES forward earnings yield as ratio to annualized SD of return in benchmark currency (90d-half time). [5] Forward earnings yield,divided by beta-induced annualized standard deviation (benchmark is MSCI World). [6] IBES forward earnings yield normalized premium over local 1-month real rate (divided by local annualized SD). [7] EPS forecast revisions (IBES), percent change over 3 months, winsorized at 50%. [8] Local excess GDP growth relative to G4, weighted by domestic revenue share plus lagged real effective depreciation, weighted by foreign revenue share. [9] Estimated real GDP growth is a 3-month rolling average of %oya, based on latest national accounts and key monthly activity data, 2 months publication lag. [10] Nominal effectiv exchange rate, % over 3m, adjusted for economy’s sensitity to exchange rate, negative. [11] Terms-of-trade/nominal depreciation trade-off, % change of the past year, 3-month moving average, openness adjusted. [12] Broad (core and headline) inflation versus inflation target, negative; currency-area data for euro countries. [13] Excess 5-year govy real yield (national inflation), vs. estimated growth, country-specific, negative. [14] Current account balance (partly predicted by merchandise trade data) plus net FDI trend , % of GDP, 1-year trailing average. [15] Estimated expansion of monetary base from FX interventions or quantitative easing (% oya, trend). [16] Equity index annualized SD in local currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [17] Equity index annualized SD in benchmark currency terms, based on 90 days half time. [18] Estimated relative recent price distortion of the country index compared to an average of global indices in %.

Global equity indices

Macro trend indicators

1 Australia (ASX SPI 200)

2 Brazil (BOVESPA)

3 Canada (TSX)

4 France (CAC 40)

5 Germany (DAX)

6 India (NIFTY)

7 Italy (FTSE-MIB)

8 Japan (Nikkei 225)

9 Korea (KOSPI)

10 Malaysia (FTSE-KLCI)

11 Mexico (MEXBOL)

12 Netherlands (AEX)

13 Poland (WIG 20)

14 Singapore (MSCI Free)

15 South Africa (FTSE-JSE Top 40)

16 Spain (IBEX)

17 Sweden (OMX Stockholm)

18 Switzerland (MSCI Switzerland)

19 Thailand (SET 50)

20 Taiwan (TWSE)

21 Turkey (ISE National)

22 U.S. (S&P 500)

23 UK (FTSE 100)